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Tropical Depression THREE-E Public Advisory Number 1
2015-06-10 22:35:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 102035 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 98.7W ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three-E was located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 98.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and a turn toward the north and north-northeast is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Thursday morning. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains could spread over portions of the southern coast of Mexico, primarily in the states of Oaxaca and Guerrero, during the next couple of days. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression THREE-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2015-06-10 22:35:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUN 10 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 102035 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 2100 UTC WED JUN 10 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 8(17) 7(24) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 7(13) 9(22) 6(28) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17) 13(30) 9(39) 3(42) ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 2(12) ACAPULCO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) P MALDONADO 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 17(28) 17(45) 8(53) 1(54) P MALDONADO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 4(15) 1(16) P MALDONADO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) P ANGEL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 15(28) 8(36) 2(38) P ANGEL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) P ANGEL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) HUATULCO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 13(24) 8(32) 1(33) HUATULCO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) HUATULCO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TAPACHULA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression THREE-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2015-06-10 22:34:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUN 10 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 102034 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 2100 UTC WED JUN 10 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 98.7W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 98.7W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 98.4W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 13.0N 99.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 13.4N 99.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.0N 99.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 14.5N 99.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.5N 99.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 16.5N 100.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 17.5N 103.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 98.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression THREE-E Graphics
2014-06-09 23:07:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2014 20:31:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2014 21:03:44 GMT
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Tropical Depression THREE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2014-06-09 22:40:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON JUN 09 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 092040 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 200 PM PDT MON JUN 09 2014 Deep convection associated with an area of low pressure to the southwest of Mexico has become much better organized during the past 12 hours, and 1554 UTC and 1640 UTC ASCAT-B and ASCAT-A overpasses, respectively, indicated that the system had uncontaminated surface winds of 30-32 kt in the northeast quadrant. Therefore, advisories are being initiated on the third tropical depression of the eastern North Pacific season. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on the ASCAT data and satellite estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and T1.5/25 kt from SAB. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 270/04 kt, based primarily on microwave satellite data and ASCAT wind data. The cyclone is expected to remain south of a deep-layer subtropical ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico to Baja California and into the eastern Pacific. The global and regional models are in excellent agreement on a westward to west-northwestward motion throughout the forecast period, and the official forecast track is similar to but slightly faster the consensus model TVCE. Although the cloud structure of the depression has improved markedly in visible imagery since this morning, several microwave images indicate that the low-level and mid-level circulations are not yet juxtaposed. Furthermore, ASCAT wind data suggest that the low-level circulation is slightly elongated east-west, and a pronounced dry slot coming off of the mountains of Mexico is also evident in visible and microwave satellite data in the western semicircle. As a result, only gradual rather than rapid strengthening is forecast for the next 24-48 hours while the cyclone remains over warm water and in a low environmental wind shear. By 96 hours, cooler SSTs less than 26C, increasing southwesterly shear, and drier mid-level air are expected to produce steady weakening. The official intensity forecast is similar to the intensity consensus model ICON. Given the forecast track and size of the tropical cyclone, the Government of Mexico does not anticipate the need for any watches or warnings along the coast of Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 15.4N 102.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 15.5N 102.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 15.6N 103.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 15.7N 105.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 15.9N 106.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 16.6N 109.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 17.6N 112.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 18.7N 114.3W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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