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Summary for Tropical Storm BERTHA (AT3/AL032014)
2014-08-01 07:42:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA HEADING TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES... As of 2:00 AM AST Fri Aug 1 the center of BERTHA was located near 12.6, -56.3 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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bertha
Tropical Storm BERTHA Public Advisory Number 1A
2014-08-01 07:42:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST FRI AUG 01 2014 000 WTNT33 KNHC 010542 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 200 AM AST FRI AUG 01 2014 ...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA HEADING TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.6N 56.3W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM E OF BARBADOS ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR MARTINIQUE LATER TODAY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. LUCIA * DOMINICA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES * CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.3 WEST. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BARBADOS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES FRIDAY EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE WARNING AREA BY MIDDAY TODAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY. RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Discussion Number 1
2014-08-01 05:21:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU JUL 31 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 010321 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 1100 PM AST THU JUL 31 2014 Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft earlier this afternoon and evening indicated that the well-defined low pressure system located about 250 nmi east-southeast of Barbados had surface winds of about 40 kt north and northeast of the center. Since the departure of the aircraft, a band of deep convection has developed near and to the north and east of the low-level center, and now has enough organization to consider this system a tropical cyclone. The initial motion estimate is 290/17 kt. Bertha is moving along the southern periphery of a strong subtropical ridge located to the north based on earlier dropsonde data obtained by a NOAA Gulfstream-IV jet aircraft. The NHC model guidance is in excellent agreement on the cyclone maintaining a general west-northwestward motion for the next 48 hours or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest after that through 96 hours. By Day 5, Bertha is expected to turn northward as it moves around the western portion of the ridge. The official forecast track is similar to but slightly north of the consensus model, TVCA. The environment surrounding Bertha is not particularly favorable for significant strengthening during the next two days due to modest westerly shear and limited mid-level moisture. However, the cyclone will be moving over increasing SSTs and within an upper-level atmosphere that is slightly cooler than normal. The resultant increase in instability could allow for some slight strengthening to occur before Bertha interacts with Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola in about 48 hours or so. After the cyclone clears land, some slight re-strengthening is possible based on the SHIPS model indicating that the vertical shear decreasing to less than 10 kt and SSTs increasing to near 29C. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the consensus model ICON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 12.3N 55.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 13.2N 58.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 14.5N 61.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 16.1N 64.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 17.9N 67.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 22.0N 73.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 26.8N 75.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 32.0N 74.7W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Graphics
2014-08-01 05:10:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2014 03:01:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2014 03:05:46 GMT
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bertha
Tropical Storm BERTHA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2014-08-01 05:00:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014 000 FONT13 KNHC 010300 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 0300 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) 1(18) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 5(19) X(19) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 1(22) 1(23) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 1(26) X(26) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 17(27) X(27) X(27) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PONCE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 37(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) PONCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PONCE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JUAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 16(16) 12(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BARBUDA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANTIGUA 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUADELOUPE 34 X 5( 5) 9(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) AVES 34 X 1( 1) 54(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) AVES 50 X X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) AVES 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DOMINICA 34 X 29(29) 12(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) DOMINICA 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MARTINIQUE 34 X 53(53) 4(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) MARTINIQUE 50 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MARTINIQUE 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT LUCIA 34 X 30(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) SAINT LUCIA 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT VINCENT 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARBADOS 34 1 21(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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