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Summary for Tropical Storm BERTHA (AT3/AL032014)

2014-08-02 10:50:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...BERTHA MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...HEAVY SQUALLS APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Aug 2 the center of BERTHA was located near 16.3, -64.9 with movement WNW at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm BERTHA Public Advisory Number 6

2014-08-02 10:50:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST SAT AUG 02 2014 000 WTNT33 KNHC 020850 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 500 AM AST SAT AUG 02 2014 ...BERTHA MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...HEAVY SQUALLS APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 64.9W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...THE RAGGED ISLANDS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND... RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MARTINIQUE * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES * CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS * THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO ISLA SAONA * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.9 WEST. BERTHA IS RACING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA WILL PASS NEAR PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT...AND APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...AND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY EARLY SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE COULD OCCUR IN SQUALLS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY LATER TODAY. RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS WELL AS THE TURKS AND CAICOS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO...WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Storm BERTHA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

2014-08-02 10:50:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 02 2014 000 FONT13 KNHC 020850 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 0900 UTC SAT AUG 02 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 1(20) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 3(37) X(37) X(37) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAYAGUANA 34 X 1( 1) 29(30) 9(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GRAND TURK 34 X 8( 8) 48(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 23(23) 7(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) PUERTO PLATA 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SANTO DOMINGO 34 1 11(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) PONCE 34 81 X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) PONCE 50 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN JUAN 34 52 X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) SAINT THOMAS 34 24 X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) SAINT CROIX 34 56 X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) AVES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Advisory Number 6

2014-08-02 10:50:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 02 2014 000 WTNT23 KNHC 020849 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 0900 UTC SAT AUG 02 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...THE RAGGED ISLANDS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND... RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MARTINIQUE * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES * CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS * THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO ISLA SAONA * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 64.9W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 64.9W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 64.1W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.8N 67.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.0N 70.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 22.5N 72.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 25.0N 73.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 31.0N 72.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 36.0N 67.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 40.0N 58.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 64.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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