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Summary for Tropical Storm BERTHA (AT3/AL032014)
2014-08-02 04:45:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISORGANIZED BERTHA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Aug 1 the center of BERTHA was located near 15.7, -63.0 with movement WNW at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Public Advisory Number 5
2014-08-02 04:45:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST FRI AUG 01 2014 000 WTNT33 KNHC 020245 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 1100 PM AST FRI AUG 01 2014 ...DISORGANIZED BERTHA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 63.0W ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM SE OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR DOMINICA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MARTINIQUE * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES * CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO ISLA SAONA * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS * THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.0 WEST. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVERNIGHT...PASS NEAR PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. GUADELOUPE RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 37 MPH...59 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER DOMINICA AND GUADELOUPE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE COULD OCCUR IN SQUALLS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY LATE SATURDAY...AND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY EARLY SUNDAY. RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO...WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2014-08-02 04:45:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 02 2014 000 FONT13 KNHC 020245 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 0300 UTC SAT AUG 02 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 2(18) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 8(33) X(33) X(33) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 28(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GRAND TURK 34 X 1( 1) 46(47) 6(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 3( 3) 20(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) PONCE 34 9 63(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) PONCE 50 X 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PONCE 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JUAN 34 12 44(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) SAN JUAN 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 27 9(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) SAINT CROIX 34 54 2(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) SAINT MAARTEN 34 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 22 X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) BARBUDA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANTIGUA 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUADELOUPE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AVES 34 47 X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) DOMINICA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Summary for Tropical Storm BERTHA (AT3/AL032014)
2014-08-02 01:54:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BERTHA MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY... As of 8:00 PM AST Fri Aug 1 the center of BERTHA was located near 15.2, -61.9 with movement WNW at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Public Advisory Number 4A
2014-08-02 01:54:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST FRI AUG 01 2014 000 WTNT33 KNHC 012354 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 800 PM AST FRI AUG 01 2014 ...BERTHA MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 61.9W ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM WSW OF DOMINICA ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICA * MARTINIQUE * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES * CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO ISLA SAONA * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS * THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.9 WEST. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT...PASS NEAR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SATURDAY NIGHT...AND APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A WEATHER STATION ON DOMINICA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 43 MPH...69 KM/H. GUADELOUPE RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 37 MPH...59 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN THE WARNING AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON GUADELOUPE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE COULD OCCUR IN SQUALLS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO...WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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