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Summary for Tropical Storm BERTHA (AT3/AL032014)

2014-08-01 10:48:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...BERTHA CONTINUES TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT ISLANDS... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Aug 1 the center of BERTHA was located near 13.0, -57.0 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm BERTHA Public Advisory Number 2

2014-08-01 10:48:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST FRI AUG 01 2014 000 WTNT33 KNHC 010847 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 500 AM AST FRI AUG 01 2014 ...BERTHA CONTINUES TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 57.0W ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM E OF BARBADOS ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR MARTINIQUE LATER TODAY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. LUCIA * DOMINICA * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES * CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...31 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR NORTH OF BARBADOS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT...AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE WARNING AREA BY MIDDAY TODAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY. RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Storm BERTHA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

2014-08-01 10:47:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014 000 FONT13 KNHC 010847 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 0900 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 8(28) X(28) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 2(25) X(25) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 33(36) 1(37) X(37) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) X(21) X(21) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PONCE 34 X X( X) 28(28) 22(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) PONCE 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PONCE 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) 24(24) 17(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 1( 1) 21(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) SAINT CROIX 34 X 1( 1) 32(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BARBUDA 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANTIGUA 34 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUADELOUPE 34 X 14(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) AVES 34 X 27(27) 24(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) AVES 50 X 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) AVES 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DOMINICA 34 1 55(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) DOMINICA 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MARTINIQUE 34 2 55(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) MARTINIQUE 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT LUCIA 34 1 15(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) BARBADOS 34 10 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Advisory Number 2

2014-08-01 10:46:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014 000 WTNT23 KNHC 010846 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 0900 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR MARTINIQUE LATER TODAY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. LUCIA * DOMINICA * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES * CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 57.0W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 57.0W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 56.2W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.0N 59.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.5N 63.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.2N 66.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.5N 68.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 24.5N 73.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 29.0N 74.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 35.0N 67.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 57.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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