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Summary for Tropical Storm BERTHA (AT3/AL032014)
2014-08-02 07:41:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BERTHA RACING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 2:00 AM AST Sat Aug 2 the center of BERTHA was located near 15.8, -64.0 with movement WNW at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Public Advisory Number 5A
2014-08-02 07:41:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST SAT AUG 02 2014 000 WTNT33 KNHC 020541 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 200 AM AST SAT AUG 02 2014 ...BERTHA RACING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 64.0W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MARTINIQUE * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES * CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO ISLA SAONA * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS * THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES ...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST. BERTHA IS RAPIDLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA WILL PASS NEAR PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BERTHA REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE COULD OCCUR IN SQUALLS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY LATE SATURDAY...AND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY EARLY SUNDAY. RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO...WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Graphics
2014-08-02 05:10:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2014 02:47:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2014 03:05:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Discussion Number 5
2014-08-02 04:54:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST FRI AUG 01 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 020254 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 1100 PM AST FRI AUG 01 2014 While some convection developed near the estimated center during the past few hours, the circulation of Bertha remains disorganized. In fact, the Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been unable to find a center at 5000 ft this evening. However, surface observations suggested that there was still a small closed surface circulation when Bertha moved between Martinique and Dominica a few hours ago. The estimated center position is on the southwestern edge of the convective canopy, consistent with the 16 kt of southwesterly shear analyzed by the SHIPS model. The initial intensity remains 45 kt based on several SFMR winds of 40-45 kt reported by the aircraft east and northeast of the center. While the SHIPS model shows the shear decreasing on Saturday, Bertha will continue moving through a dry environment during the next 24 to 36 hours. There is also the potential for land interaction with Puerto Rico and Hispaniola during this time, which could disrupt the small circulation. Given all of these factors, little change in intensity is expected through 36 hours. After that time, if Bertha survives, the environment is expected to become more favorable for intensification with warming SSTs, increasing moisture, and lower vertical shear. Much of the intensity guidance shows Bertha reaching hurricane strength in 72 to 96 hours, and the official forecast follows suit. The new NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted upward from 48 to 96 hours, but remains a little below the IVCN intensity consensus. Note that it is possible that the combination of shear, dry air, and land interaction could cause Bertha to degenerate to a tropical wave during the next 36 hours, followed by possible regeneration when the system reaches the more favorable environment later in the forecast period. The initial motion estimate is 290/19, as Bertha is being steered west-northwestward by a deep-layer subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. The ridge will begin to erode after 24 hours as a mid- to upper-level trough moves through the eastern United States, which should allow Bertha to turn northwestward and then northward by 3 days. After that time, Bertha is expected to complete recurvature and accelerate northeastward into the north Atlantic. The track model guidance remains in good agreement on this general scenario, however, there is a fair bit of spread in how sharply Bertha will recurve. The GFS and GEFS ensemble mean lie on the eastern edge of the guidance envelope, with the ECMWF, HWRF, and GFDL showing a more gradual turn and a track a little farther west. Through 36 hours the new NHC track is an update of the previous one. After that time, the official forecast has been nudged toward the left, but lies a little to the right of the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 15.7N 63.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 16.9N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 19.0N 68.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 21.4N 71.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 24.0N 73.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 30.0N 73.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 35.5N 68.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 40.0N 59.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Advisory Number 5
2014-08-02 04:46:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 02 2014 000 WTNT23 KNHC 020245 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 0300 UTC SAT AUG 02 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR DOMINICA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MARTINIQUE * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES * CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO ISLA SAONA * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS * THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 63.0W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 15SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 63.0W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 62.2W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.9N 65.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.0N 68.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 21.4N 71.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 24.0N 73.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 30.0N 73.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 35.5N 68.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 40.0N 59.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 63.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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