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Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Advisory Number 7
2014-08-02 16:53:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 02 2014 000 WTNT23 KNHC 021453 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 1500 UTC SAT AUG 02 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO ISLA SAONA. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES * CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO ISLA SAONA * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS * THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 66.7W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 66.7W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 65.9W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.8N 68.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 21.2N 71.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 23.6N 73.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 26.4N 74.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 32.5N 71.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 37.5N 64.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 42.0N 55.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 66.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Graphics
2014-08-02 13:40:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2014 11:40:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2014 09:06:46 GMT
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bertha
Summary for Tropical Storm BERTHA (AT3/AL032014)
2014-08-02 13:39:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BERTHA MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... ...HEAVY SQUALLS MOVING INTO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... As of 8:00 AM AST Sat Aug 2 the center of BERTHA was located near 16.7, -65.5 with movement WNW at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Graphics
2014-08-02 11:12:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2014 08:54:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2014 09:06:46 GMT
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bertha
Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Discussion Number 6
2014-08-02 10:51:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SAT AUG 02 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 020850 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 500 AM AST SAT AUG 02 2014 Bertha is a disorganized tropical cyclone, but based on earlier reconnaissance aircraft data, it is still producing winds of 40 to 45 knots. Satellite data show that the low-level center is exposed with most of the showers and squalls to the north and east. San Juan Puerto Rico radar also shows the circulation associated with the cyclone. Another plane will be investigating Bertha in a few hours. The shear has not decreased, but global models insist on forecasting a little more conducive upper-level environment in 24 hours or so. If the cyclone survives the current shear, and the interaction with Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, it could strengthen slightly over the open Atlantic as indicated in the NHC forecast. In fact, this is the solution of the SHIPS and HWRF models. Bertha continues to be embedded within a strong easterly flow south of the subtropical ridge, and the cyclone is racing toward the west-northwest of 295 degrees at about 19 knots. However, in about 24 to 36 hours, Bertha will reach the southwestern edge of the ridge and will likely slow down a little. The cyclone will then move northward and northeastward over the Atlantic, steered by the southerly flow between the ridge and a trough over the eastern United States. This is the solution of most of the dynamical models which indeed are in pretty good agreement. The NHC forecast follows the multi-model consensus and is very similar to the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 16.3N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 17.8N 67.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 20.0N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 22.5N 72.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 25.0N 73.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 31.0N 72.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 36.0N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 40.0N 58.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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