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Summary for Tropical Storm BERTHA (AT3/AL032014)
2014-08-01 17:08:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS BERTHA SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT DISORGANIZED... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Aug 1 the center of BERTHA was located near 14.0, -58.9 with movement WNW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Public Advisory Number 3
2014-08-01 17:08:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 01 2014 000 WTNT33 KNHC 011508 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 3...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 01 2014 CORRECTED WATCH POINTS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS BERTHA SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT DISORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 58.9W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NE OF BARBADOS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO ISLA SAONA. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT...AND THE GRENADINES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. LUCIA * DOMINICA * MARTINIQUE * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES * CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO ISLA SAONA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.9 WEST. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF BARBADOS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT...AND APPROACH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY. RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE U. S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO...WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Advisory Number 3
2014-08-01 17:06:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014 000 WTNT23 KNHC 011506 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 1500 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014 CORRECTED WATCH POINTS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO ISLA SAONA. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT...AND THE GRENADINES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. LUCIA * DOMINICA * MARTINIQUE * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES * CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO ISLA SAONA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 58.9W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 58.9W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 58.0W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.0N 61.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.6N 64.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.6N 67.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.9N 70.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 26.0N 74.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 31.5N 72.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 36.5N 65.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 58.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2014-08-01 16:56:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014 000 FONT13 KNHC 011456 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 1500 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 2(21) X(21) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) X(24) X(24) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 16(41) X(41) X(41) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PONCE 34 X 3( 3) 53(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) PONCE 50 X X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) PONCE 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN JUAN 34 X 4( 4) 44(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 9( 9) 17(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) SAINT CROIX 34 X 27(27) 14(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) SAINT CROIX 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 1 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BARBUDA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANTIGUA 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUADELOUPE 34 12 10(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) AVES 34 1 58(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) AVES 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AVES 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DOMINICA 34 76 8(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) DOMINICA 50 8 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MARTINIQUE 34 70 4(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) MARTINIQUE 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT LUCIA 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Discussion Number 3
2014-08-01 16:54:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 01 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 011454 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 01 2014 Bertha is disorganized this morning. While satellite imagery shows a well-defined low-cloud swirl exposed just west of the main convective mass, reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft show that the wind field more resembles that of an open wave. The aircraft did report 56 kt winds at 1500 feet to the east-northeast of the center, along with an area of SFMR surface winds in excess of 40 kt. Based on this, the initial intensity is increased to 45 kt. The initial motion is now 295/18, and over the past few hours Bertha may be moving even faster. The cyclone is currently being steered by the flow around the Atlantic subtropical ridge and this should continue for the next 48 hours or so. After that time, the cyclone is expected to turn northward into a break in the ridge caused by a deep-layer trough over the eastern United States. This should be followed by recurvature into the westerlies over the Atlantic north of Bermuda. The track guidance remains in good agreement with this scenario, and it has changed little since the previous advisory. The new forecast track is therefore an update of the previous forecast. Bertha is currently experiencing about 15-20 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear. and water vapor imagery shows dry mid-/upper-level air near the storm. The forecast track calls for Bertha to interact with one or two upper-level troughs during the next 48-72 hours, which should cause some shear and dry air entrainment to continue. This, combined with the current lack of organization, suggests little change in strength should occur during the next 48 hours or so. After that time, Bertha is expected to move into an environment of less shear and greater moisture. The intensity forecast calls for modest strengthening during that time, but it is weaker than all of the guidance except the Florida State Superensemble. An alternative scenario is that a combination of shear, dry air entrainment, and land interaction causes Bertha to degenerate to a tropical wave during the next 48 hours, followed by possible regeneration in the 72-120 hours when the system reaches the more favorable environment. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 14.0N 58.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 15.0N 61.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 16.6N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 18.6N 67.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 20.9N 70.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 26.0N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 31.5N 72.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 36.5N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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