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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Graphics
2016-09-26 04:44:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Sep 2016 02:44:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2016 21:04:35 GMT
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2016-09-26 04:43:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 25 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 260243 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 25 2016 The cloud pattern of the depression has not changed much during the last several hours. The center of the system is partially exposed on the west side of a convective band. Satellite images also show a pronounced dry slot to the west and northwest of the center. The Dvorak classifications remain T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and T1.5/25 kt from SAB, and based on these estimates, the initial wind speed is held at 30 kt. Some slight strengthening is possible overnight or on Monday while the system remains over warm water and in an environment of light to moderate shear. After that time, the environment should become less conducive with southwesterly shear increasing to more than 20 kt in about 24 hours, which will likely end the opportunity for strengthening. The system is forecast to cross the 26-deg-C isotherm in 36 to 48 hours, and as a result, it should become a remnant low by day 3. The global models show the remnant low dissipating by the end of the forecast period, and that is reflected in the official forecast. The new intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one and is in good agreement with the latest intensity model consensus. The center of the depression has wobbled a bit to the west of the previous track, and the current motion estimate is 345/6 kt. A large cut-off mid- to upper-level low over northwestern Mexico is expected to drift southwestward during the next day or two. This should cause the system to turn north-northeastward to northeastward on Monday, and continue in that general direction through mid-week. Once the system becomes a shallow remnant low, a turn to the west-northwest is predicted, following the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast is not too different from the previous one, and is in best agreement with the GFS ensemble mean and a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 16.7N 120.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 17.2N 119.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 17.8N 119.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 18.7N 118.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 19.9N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 22.6N 117.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0000Z 24.6N 119.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2016-09-26 04:43:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 26 2016 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 260243 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 0300 UTC MON SEP 26 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E (EP3/EP182016)
2016-09-26 04:42:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH WELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Sep 25 the center of EIGHTEEN-E was located near 16.7, -120.1 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 3
2016-09-26 04:42:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 25 2016 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 260242 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 25 2016 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH WELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 120.1W ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen-E was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 120.1 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast or northeast is expected on Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the depression could become a tropical storm on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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