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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-09-25 18:52:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM PDT SUN SEP 25 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 251652 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 1000 AM PDT SUN SEP 25 2016 Deep convection associated with the low pressure area located well southwest of the Baja California has become better organized overnight, and early morning visible satellite imagery indicate that the circulation has become better defined. Based on these observations, and Dvorak classifications of T2.0 and T1.5 from TAFB and SAB respectively, advisories are being initiated on a 30-kt tropical depression at this time. The depression is currently located over warm water and within an area of low vertical wind shear, which is favorable for some gradual strengthening today. However, in about 24 hours, the tropical cyclone is forecast to move into an area of higher southwesterly shear caused by large mid- to upper-level low and associated trough over northwestern Mexico. The global models suggest that the shear will become quite strong in 36 to 48 hours as the cyclone begins moving over cooler waters. This should result in a rapid spin down, and the system is likely to become a post-tropical remnant low within 3 days. The official intensity foreast is slightly above the SHIPS guidance but is in good agreement with the intensity consensus. Since the depression is still in its formative stage, the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 360/4 kt. The cyclone is expected to be steered slowly northward or north-northeastward during the next couple of days around the western portion of a weak mid-level ridge that extends southwestward from southern Mexico. By 72 hours, the low should turn northwestward in the low-level steering flow after it weakens and becomes a vertically shallow system. Although the ECMWF and GFS models are on opposite sides of the guidance envelope, the track models are in general agreement on the overall scenario and the NHC forecast lies near the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1700Z 15.6N 119.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 16.2N 119.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 16.8N 119.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 17.4N 119.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 18.5N 118.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 21.0N 117.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 23.0N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1200Z 24.5N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2016-09-25 18:51:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1700 UTC SUN SEP 25 2016 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 251651 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 1700 UTC SUN SEP 25 2016 AT 1700Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) 15N 120W 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) 1(14) X(14) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E (EP3/EP182016)
2016-09-25 18:51:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... As of 10:00 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 the center of EIGHTEEN-E was located near 15.6, -119.7 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 1
2016-09-25 18:51:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM PDT SUN SEP 25 2016 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 251651 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 1000 AM PDT SUN SEP 25 2016 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM PDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 119.7W ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM PDT (1700 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen-E was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 119.7 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast with some increase in forward speed is expected on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2016-09-25 18:50:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1700 UTC SUN SEP 25 2016 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 251650 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 1700 UTC SUN SEP 25 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 119.7W AT 25/1700Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 119.7W AT 25/1700Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 119.7W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.2N 119.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.8N 119.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.4N 119.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.5N 118.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.0N 117.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 23.0N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 24.5N 119.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 119.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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