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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-09-26 16:45:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON SEP 26 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 261445 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192016 800 AM PDT MON SEP 26 2016 Scatterometer data from around 0600 UTC indicated that the area of low pressure located near 140W had a well-defined circulation, with peak reliable wind vectors of 28 kt. Deep convection associated with this system has since become much better organized. Satellite classifications are T2.0 and T2.5, and the low is designated as a tropical depression based on these satellite data. Light northwesterly shear, warm waters of around 28 deg C and an increasingly diffluent flow aloft over the cyclone support intensification during the next 2 to 3 days. The large divergence expected over the depression is related to a mid-level cyclone seen in water vapor imagery near 18N 140W that is forecast to retrograde. The only negative factor is marginal mid-level moisture that is forecast to decrease further. Once the system gains sufficient latitude after 72 hours, it is likely to become vulnerable to much stronger westerly flow aloft. In fact, with 30 to 40 kt of westerly shear forecast over the cyclone by day 4, rapid weakening should occur, and the system is forecast to be a remnant low by that time. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the statistical and dynamical guidance through 72 hours and is below both sets of output after that time. The low was moving just south of due west during the last 24 hours, but appears to have recently turned toward the northwest. Given the sudden change in heading, the initial motion estimate of 305/04 is rather uncertain. Global models show the cyclone turning northward within 24 hours and then moving north-northeastward after that for the next few days while it rotates around the mid-level low to the northwest of the cyclone. Once the cyclone weakens appreciably after 72 hours, a turn toward the west is likely when the remnant low is steered by the trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast is a left of the multi-model consensus, close to a consensus without the GFDL model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 11.6N 139.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 12.0N 139.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 12.8N 139.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 13.6N 138.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 14.4N 138.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 16.1N 138.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 17.2N 139.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1200Z 17.3N 142.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2016-09-26 16:42:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 26 2016 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 261442 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192016 1500 UTC MON SEP 26 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 8(16) 2(18) X(18) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 10N 140W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 15N 140W 34 X 4( 4) 13(17) 10(27) 5(32) 2(34) X(34) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Summary for Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E (EP4/EP192016)
2016-09-26 16:41:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR 140W... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Sep 26 the center of NINETEEN-E was located near 11.6, -139.6 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Public Advisory Number 1
2016-09-26 16:41:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON SEP 26 2016 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 261441 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192016 800 AM PDT MON SEP 26 2016 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR 140W... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.6N 139.6W ABOUT 1170 MI...1885 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E was located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 139.6 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected today, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is likely during the next couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2016-09-26 16:41:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 26 2016 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 261441 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192016 1500 UTC MON SEP 26 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 139.6W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 139.6W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 139.5W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 12.0N 139.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 12.8N 139.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 13.6N 138.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 14.4N 138.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 16.1N 138.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 17.2N 139.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 17.3N 142.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 139.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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