je.st
news
Tag: depression
Tropical Depression TWELVE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2016-09-15 22:38:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 152037 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 2100 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
speed
wind
twelve
Tropical Depression TWELVE Forecast Advisory Number 6
2016-09-15 22:37:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 152037 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 2100 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 31.4W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 31.4W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 30.8W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.9N 33.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.0N 36.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.8N 38.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.5N 41.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.0N 46.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 17.5N 51.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 18.5N 56.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 31.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
twelve
advisory
tropical
Tropical Depression JULIA Graphics
2016-09-15 16:49:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 15 Sep 2016 14:49:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Sep 2016 14:47:32 GMT
Tags: graphics
tropical
depression
julia
Tropical Depression JULIA Forecast Discussion Number 7
2016-09-15 16:48:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 151448 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 New convection has formed near and east of the center of Julia during the past few hours, although the low-level center remains partially exposed due to westerly vertical wind shear. Subjective satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB are 30 and 35 kt respectively, while various objective estimates are 35-45 kt. The initial intensity is kept at 30 kt pending the arrival of an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft, but there is a possibility that this is conservative. After not moving much overnight, the center of Julia has jumped eastward this morning. The overall long-term motion is 095/7, but the short-term motion is significantly faster than that. The forecast guidance is in good agreement that Julia should move little after 12 hours, and the new track forecast is based on the premise that the current forward speed will decrease by the 12 hours point. The new forecast track has the same general idea as the previous track, but the area where Julia will meander is now forecast to be about 90 n mi farther east than in the previous forecast. Julia is forecast to experience very strong westerly to northwesterly shear for the next four days or so, and this is expected to cause a gradual weakening during this time. The NHC intensity forecast follows the previous one, as well as the GFS and ECMWF models, in calling for the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low by 72 hours and dissipate completely by 120 hours. It should be noted that the shear could decrease after 96 hours, and the UKMET and Canadian models forecast re-intensification at that time. However, at this time it appears unlikely that the cyclone will survive long enough to take advantage of the possibly more favorable environment. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 31.8N 78.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 31.8N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 31.7N 77.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 31.6N 77.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 31.4N 77.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 31.5N 77.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1200Z 32.0N 77.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Summary for Tropical Depression JULIA (AT1/AL112016)
2016-09-15 16:48:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF JULIA MOVES FARTHER EASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO MEANDER OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 11:00 AM EDT Thu Sep 15 the center of JULIA was located near 31.8, -78.2 with movement E at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tags: summary
tropical
depression
julia
Sites : [1034] [1035] [1036] [1037] [1038] [1039] [1040] [1041] [1042] [1043] [1044] [1045] [1046] [1047] [1048] [1049] [1050] [1051] [1052] [1053] next »