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Tropical Depression NINE Public Advisory Number 1
2016-08-28 22:50:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 282050 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.7N 81.7W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NE OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 81.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, the depression will be moving away from the Florida Keys and into the Gulf of Mexico overnight. A turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected on Monday followed by a turn toward the northwest on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Monday. The latest minimum central pressure reported by the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 4 inches over the southern half of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys through Wednesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible over coastal areas of southern Florida and the Keys. This rainfall may cause flooding and flash flooding. WIND: Gusts to tropical storm force are possible in a few squalls in the lower Florida Keys through tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Advisory Number 1
2016-08-28 22:47:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 28 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 282046 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 2100 UTC SUN AUG 28 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 81.7W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 81.7W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 81.7W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 23.9N 83.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 24.3N 85.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 24.6N 86.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 25.1N 87.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 26.8N 87.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 29.0N 84.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 31.0N 80.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 81.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2016-08-28 22:36:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 28 2016 000 FONT13 KNHC 282036 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 2100 UTC SUN AUG 28 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) NORFOLK VA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 9(14) X(14) X(14) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 9(18) X(18) X(18) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 3( 3) 11(14) 10(24) 12(36) X(36) X(36) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) 5(22) X(22) X(22) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 11(24) 5(29) X(29) X(29) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 9(21) 5(26) X(26) X(26) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Graphics
2016-08-28 22:34:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 28 Aug 2016 20:34:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 28 Aug 2016 20:33:34 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHT (AT3/AL082016)
2016-08-28 22:34:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 the center of EIGHT was located near 31.8, -70.9 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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