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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Advisory Number 3
2016-08-29 04:53:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 000 WTNT23 KNHC 290252 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 0300 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON MONDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 72.1W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 72.1W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 71.7W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 32.8N 73.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 33.5N 74.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 34.1N 75.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 34.9N 75.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 37.6N 71.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.2N 72.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-08-28 22:56:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 282055 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the area of low pressure located in the Florida Straits now has a well-defined center. Satellite imagery shows a significant increase in the convective organization today, and as a result the system is now classified as a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on the highest believable wind data from the aircraft, which reported a central pressure of 1009 mb. The depression will be moving through a marginal environment for intensification during the next day or so, with vertical shear of 15 to 20 kt. As a result only slow strengthening is expected in the short term. Later on, the environment may improve a little as the shear is forecast to decrease somewhat and become southwesterly, which should allow for a little more strengthening. However, there are mixed signals in the model guidance, with the ECMWF now showing the cyclone dissipating in the Gulf, while the GFS delays development until 4-5 days. Much of the tropical cyclone guidance is more aggressive. Given this uncertainty, the NHC intensity forecast is quite conservative and shows the system peaking at 45 kt, below all the explicit intensity guidance in consideration of the negative signal from the ECMWF. Needless to say, the confidence in the intensity forecast is even lower than usual for this system. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 270/09 given the recent formation of the center. The cyclone will be steered in the short range by a mid-level ridge centered over the southeastern United States. This ridge will weaken in 2-3 days, which will cause the cyclone to slow down and turn northward during this time. Late in the period a northeastward acceleration is expected ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. There is reasonable agreement in the track of the cyclone in the global model guidance, although there is a fair bit of along-track spread late in the period. The NHC forecast is close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF through day 4 and is a little faster than the GFS and GEFS ensemble mean at day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 23.7N 81.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 23.9N 83.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 24.3N 85.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 24.6N 86.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 25.1N 87.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 31/1800Z 26.8N 87.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 29.0N 84.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 02/1800Z 31.0N 80.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Depression NINE Graphics
2016-08-28 22:51:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 28 Aug 2016 20:51:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 28 Aug 2016 20:47:36 GMT
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Tropical Depression NINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2016-08-28 22:51:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 28 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 282050 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 2100 UTC SUN AUG 28 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 11(21) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 7(16) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 7(14) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) MARATHON FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) KEY WEST FL 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) NAPLES FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 3(15) TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 5(18) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 11(15) 7(22) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 7(19) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 7(21) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 7( 8) 13(21) 5(26) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 15(26) 4(30) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 12(20) 4(24) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 2(15) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 2(16) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 13(17) 13(30) 3(33) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 2(12) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 5(13) 2(15) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 14(19) 7(26) 1(27) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) 1(11) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Summary for Tropical Depression NINE (AT4/AL092016)
2016-08-28 22:50:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 the center of NINE was located near 23.7, -81.7 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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