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Tropical Depression NINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2016-08-29 04:55:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 290255 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 0300 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 8(18) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 8(19) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 7(23) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 9(22) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 7(24) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 6(20) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) NAPLES FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 2(14) FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 8(14) 2(16) VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 10(19) 3(22) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 7( 8) 14(22) 5(27) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 14(22) 5(27) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 3(18) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 3(21) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 14(24) 3(27) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 14(16) 15(31) 3(34) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 10(19) 2(21) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 1(13) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 13(16) 9(25) 1(26) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 4(18) X(18) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) HAVANA 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion Number 3
2016-08-29 04:55:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 290254 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Satellite imagery shows that Tropical Depression Eight is currently comprised of a swirl of low-level clouds accompanied by minimal shower activity. This structure is due to the impacts of 20-25 kt of southeasterly vertical wind shear and abundant mid- to upper-level dry air seen in water vapor imagery. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain 30 kt, so that is the initial intensity for this advisory. The initial motion is 285/9. For the next 48 hours, the depression is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge near the North Carolina coast. After that time, a mid-latitude shortwave trough moving through the northeastern United States is forecast to erode the ridge and cause the cyclone to recurve northeastward into the westerlies. The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the new track forecast lies near the consensus models through 48 hours. The dynamical models forecast the shear to decrease during the next 48 hours and for the depression to move into a more moist environment. Based on this, the intensity guidance is showing strengthening as the system approaches the coast of North Carolina. The intensity forecast also shows some strengthening, but it is on the low side of the guidance envelope due to uncertainty about whether the environment will become as favorable as the models are suggesting. After recurvature, the cyclone is forecast to merge with a cold front and dissipate after 72 hours. The 48 hour position is about 35 n mi from Cape Hatteras. This, combined with the various uncertainties in the forecast, requires a tropical storm watch for portions of the North Carolina coast at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 32.2N 72.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 32.8N 73.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 33.5N 74.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 34.1N 75.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 34.9N 75.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 37.6N 71.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2016-08-29 04:54:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 000 FONT13 KNHC 290253 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 0300 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) RICHMOND VA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) NORFOLK VA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 7(18) X(18) X(18) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 9(16) 6(22) X(22) X(22) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 7( 7) 16(23) 16(39) 6(45) X(45) X(45) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 4( 4) 11(15) 10(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 8( 8) 14(22) 11(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 6( 6) 13(19) 11(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SURF CITY NC 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHT (AT3/AL082016)
2016-08-29 04:53:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 the center of EIGHT was located near 32.2, -72.1 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Public Advisory Number 3
2016-08-29 04:53:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 000 WTNT33 KNHC 290253 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 ...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 72.1W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the coast of North Carolina from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The coast of North Carolina from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Outer Banks of North Carolina should monitor the progress of the depression. Additional watches or warnings may be required on Monday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 72.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected on Monday, with a slow northwestward motion forecast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone will pass near the North Carolina Outer Banks late Tuesday or Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Tuesday afternoon. RAINFALL...The depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches over far eastern North Carolina, including the Outer Banks. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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