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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion Number 6
2016-08-29 22:52:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 292051 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 Satellite and radar images suggest that the depression is becoming better organized. Convection has formed in the northwestern quadrant, with some banding features in the northern semicircle of the cyclone. Aircraft data, however, show that the pressure has stayed the same as 6 hours ago and the winds have not increased. Thus the initial wind speed remains 30 kt. This burst of convection should eventually lead to some intensification as environmental factors (less shear and more moisture) are forecast to become a little more favorable. Most of the guidance are in good agreement on this scenario on gradual intensification, and the latest forecast is close to the previous one and the model consensus. The depression is still moving northwestward at about 6 kt. There has been no change to the synoptic reasoning from the last advisory cycle. The cyclone should slow down and turn northward tomorrow as it reaches a weakness in the subtropical ridge near the North Carolina coast. In about 36 hours, a mid-latitude shortwave trough moving through the northeastern United States is forecast to erode the ridge and cause the cyclone to recurve northeastward into the westerlies. The latest NHC prediction is very close to the previous one, between the model consensus and the GFS model. The cyclone should dissipate or be absorbed within a large extratropical cyclone in about 4 days. Due to the close pass of the cyclone to the Outer Banks, a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of North Carolina from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet, including Pamlico Sound. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 33.6N 74.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 34.0N 74.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 34.6N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 35.4N 74.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 36.7N 72.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 40.5N 64.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Advisory Number 5
2016-08-29 22:51:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 292051 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 2100 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 84.8W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 84.8W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 84.5W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 24.2N 85.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.6N 86.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 25.5N 87.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 26.8N 86.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 29.3N 83.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 32.5N 77.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 35.0N 70.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 84.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHT (AT3/AL082016)
2016-08-29 22:51:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... As of 5:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 the center of EIGHT was located near 33.6, -74.0 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Public Advisory Number 6
2016-08-29 22:51:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 000 WTNT33 KNHC 292050 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.6N 74.0W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of North Carolina from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet, including Pamlico Sound. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of North Carolina from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Outer Banks of North Carolina should monitor the progress of the depression. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 74.0 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion with a slower forward speed is expected later this evening, with a gradual turn toward the north forecast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be near the Outer Banks of North Carolina late Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by early Tuesday. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expecting within the warning area, beginning by Tuesday afternoon. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches over far eastern North Carolina, including the Outer Banks. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2016-08-29 22:51:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 000 FONT13 KNHC 292050 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 2100 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) RICHMOND VA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK VA 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 7( 7) 7(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 3 25(28) 11(39) 3(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 9( 9) 4(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) NEW RIVER NC 34 1 17(18) 5(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) MOREHEAD CITY 34 1 12(13) 4(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) SURF CITY NC 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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