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Tropical Depression NINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2016-08-29 10:48:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 290848 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 0900 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 5(22) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 3(16) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 6(24) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 5(23) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) 3(25) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 5(24) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) 3(25) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 4(22) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 4(18) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 4(18) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) X(12) FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) 1(16) VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 11(13) 7(20) 1(21) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 12(13) 11(24) 2(26) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 15(28) 2(30) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) 1(19) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) 1(21) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 11(25) 1(26) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 16(19) 11(30) 1(31) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 8(20) 1(21) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15(18) 4(22) 1(23) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 2(14) X(14) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression NINE (AT4/AL092016)
2016-08-29 10:48:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POORLY ORGANZIED DEPRESSION MOVING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... As of 5:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 the center of NINE was located near 23.5, -83.9 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression NINE Public Advisory Number 3
2016-08-29 10:48:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 290847 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 500 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 ...POORLY ORGANZIED DEPRESSION MOVING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 83.9W ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM WSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 83.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast today, followed by a slow northwestward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be passing north of the north coast of western Cuba today, and moving farther into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by tonight. Data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indiate that the maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over the southern Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys through Wednesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches are possible over coastal areas of southern Florida and the Keys. This rainfall may cause flooding and flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Advisory Number 3
2016-08-29 10:47:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 290847 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 0900 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 83.9W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 83.9W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 83.5W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 23.7N 85.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 24.1N 86.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.7N 87.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 25.4N 87.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 27.8N 85.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 30.5N 81.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 33.0N 74.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 83.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHT (AT3/AL082016)
2016-08-29 07:35:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 2:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 the center of EIGHT was located near 32.4, -72.6 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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