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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2016-07-07 10:44:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT THU JUL 07 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 070843 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 300 AM MDT THU JUL 07 2016 Tropical Depression Four-E has changed little overnight. A 0458Z ASCAT-B overpass indicated a broad, weak inner-core wind field with the low-level center located at or south of 12N latitude. However, passive microwave satellite data indicate a fairly well-developed mid-level circulation displaced more than 30 nmi north-northwest of the low-level center due to southeasterly vertical wind shear. The ASCAT data also indicated a couple of 35-kt surface wind vectors. However, convection near the center has noticeably weakened and become less organized since that pass, so the cyclone is being maintained as a 30-kt depression, which is supported by a blend of satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS. The initial motion estimate is still 285/07 kt, based primarily on a blend of microwave and scatterometer fix positions of the low-level and mid-level circulation centers. Despite the difficulty in locating the exact center of the depression, the NHC model guidance is in remarkably good agreement on the future track of the cyclone. The strong subtropical ridge to the north of the depression is forecast to remain nearly stationary throughout the forecast period, and even amplify somewhat in 24-72 hours, driving the cyclone in a general westward motion. After that time, the cyclone is expected to turn toward the west-northwest as the system moves around the southwestern periphery of the ridge. The NHC official forecast track essentially lies down the middle of the guidance envelope, and closely follows the multi-model consensus TVCE. The depression is experiencing mid-level dry air entrainment and modest mid-level shear conditions, which have combined to disrupt the inner-core wind field somewhat. However, the overall environment is quite favorable for strengthening to occur, so once the inner-core region recovers later today, steady strengthening is expected through 36 h. However, around 48 h or so, the cyclone is expected to pass near or just south of a pronounced cold wake left behind by Hurricane Blas when it traversed this same area a couple of days ago. This could produce a slightly more stable environment, so the intensification trend at that time is leveled off some. From 72 hours and beyond, however, conditions become quite favorable for at least steady strengthening, and some of the models are even calling for the cyclone to become a major hurricane by 120 h. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models through 72 hours, but is a little lower than those models on days 4 and 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 12.6N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 12.7N 111.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 12.8N 112.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 12.9N 114.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 13.1N 115.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 13.1N 119.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 14.0N 123.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 15.6N 127.4W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2016-07-07 10:43:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 07 2016 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 070843 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 0900 UTC THU JUL 07 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Depression FOUR-E (EP4/EP042016)
2016-07-07 10:43:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Thu Jul 7 the center of FOUR-E was located near 12.6, -110.2 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Public Advisory Number 3
2016-07-07 10:43:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT THU JUL 07 2016 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 070843 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 300 AM MDT THU JUL 07 2016 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.6N 110.2W ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 110.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected later today, and this motion should continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2016-07-07 10:42:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 07 2016 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 070842 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 0900 UTC THU JUL 07 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 110.2W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 110.2W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 109.8W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 12.7N 111.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 12.8N 112.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 12.9N 114.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 13.1N 115.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 13.1N 119.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 14.0N 123.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 15.6N 127.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 110.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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