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Tropical Depression FIVE-E Public Advisory Number 1
2016-07-11 22:43:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 112042 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 300 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016 ...ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 106.3W ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five-E was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 106.3 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn to the west with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression FIVE-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2016-07-11 22:43:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 11 2016 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 112042 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 2100 UTC MON JUL 11 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 106.3W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 106.3W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 106.0W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 16.0N 107.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 16.2N 109.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.1N 111.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.0N 113.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.2N 118.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 16.8N 122.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 17.7N 126.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 106.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 30
2016-07-10 10:35:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 100835 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016 Blas has been void of organized deep convection since about 00Z, and convection is unlikely to return given that the cyclone is moving over SSTs less than 24C. The initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Blas should weaken to a remnant low later today and the cyclone is expected to open up into a trough after 48 hours. Microwave fixes indicate that Blas is located a bit south of previous estimates and the latest geostationary fixes, and the initial motion estimate is 280/10. The shallow cyclone is expected to gradually turn west-southwestward under the influence of the low-level trade wind flow before dissipation. The new NHC track forecast is a little south of the previous one given the initial position and a southward trend in the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 21.2N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 21.3N 136.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 11/0600Z 21.0N 138.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/1800Z 20.5N 141.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0600Z 20.0N 143.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Depression BLAS Graphics
2016-07-10 10:34:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Jul 2016 08:33:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Jul 2016 08:33:35 GMT
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Tropical Depression BLAS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2016-07-10 10:33:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 10 2016 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 100833 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 0900 UTC SUN JUL 10 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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