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Tropical Depression FIVE-E Public Advisory Number 3
2016-07-12 10:45:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 120845 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 300 AM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 107.6W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 515 MI...825 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five-E was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 107.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). The cyclone should turn toward the west and move at a faster forward speed over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today, and could become a hurricane by Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression FIVE-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2016-07-12 10:45:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 12 2016 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 120845 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 0900 UTC TUE JUL 12 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 107.6W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 107.6W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 107.1W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.9N 108.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.7N 110.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.5N 113.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.5N 115.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 15.9N 119.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 16.6N 123.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 17.5N 127.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 107.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression FIVE-E Graphics
2016-07-12 05:11:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 12 Jul 2016 02:44:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 12 Jul 2016 03:05:13 GMT
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Tropical Depression FIVE-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2016-07-12 04:43:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 120243 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 900 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016 Convective banding associated with Five-E has increased in organization this evening. Accordingly, the SAB and TAFB Dvorak current intensity numbers have increased to a 2.0 from both agencies, corresponding to an intensity of 30 kt. Earlier scatterometer data suggested higher winds than given by Dvorak estimates, however, so the system may already be a tropical storm. The environment in which Five-E is moving over and through - quite warm SSTs, a very moist atmosphere, and moderate to low tropospheric vertical shear - is likely to promote steady intensification during the next three days. Around days 4 and 5, however, the cyclone should be encountering the cool wake produced by Hurricanes Blas and Celia. This sub-26 deg C water and more stable environment may cause the system to gradually weaken at that time. The intensity forecast is closest to an HWRF dynamical/SHIPS statistical model blend through 72 h, and to SHIPS alone at days 4 and 5, and is very similar to that from the previous advisory. The tropical cyclone is moving at 320/8 kt, though the current position and motion are somewhat uncertain because of the lack of useful microwave imagery passes this evening. The system should bend to a due west heading by tomorrow, as the deep-layer ridge to its north builds in and strengthens. The model guidance is tightly clustered through all five days and the NHC track prediction is nearly the same as that from the previous advisory. The tropical cyclone will remain out to sea with no threat to land for the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 15.7N 106.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 16.1N 108.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 16.2N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 16.1N 112.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 16.0N 114.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 16.0N 119.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 16.8N 123.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 18.0N 127.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Summary for Tropical Depression FIVE-E (EP5/EP052016)
2016-07-12 04:42:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED... As of 9:00 PM MDT Mon Jul 11 the center of FIVE-E was located near 15.7, -106.9 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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