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Tropical Depression SIX-E Graphics
2016-07-15 17:05:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Jul 2016 14:59:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Jul 2016 15:05:13 GMT
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Tropical Depression SIX-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-07-15 16:58:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 151458 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 900 AM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016 The eastern North Pacific July tropical cyclone outbreak continues. Visible satellite and overnight ASCAT data indicate that the large low pressure area located southwest of the coast of Mexico has acquired a well-defined circulation and enough convective banding to classify the system as a tropical cyclone. This marks the fifth tropical cyclone formation in the eastern Pacific this month. The earlier ASCAT data showed maximum winds of 25 to 30 kt, and this is the basis for the initial wind speed of 30 kt. The depression is forecast to remain over warm water and in a low-shear environment during the next few days, but the large size and current lack of inner-core convection will likely result in only gradual strengthening through tonight. After that time, steady strengthening is forecast, and the cyclone is forecast to become a tropical storm by early Saturday, and reach hurricane strength in a couple of days. After that time, the system is expected to move over water that has been cooled by the previous couple of hurricanes, and only a little additional intensification is predicted. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the SHIPS guidance, and follows the multi-model intensity consensus closely. The initial motion of the depression is a somewhat uncertain 290/7 kt. A climatological west-northwestward heading is forecast through the entire forecast period, to the south of a strong mid- to upper-level ridge extending westward from northern Mexico. The track guidance is in very good agreement, and the NHC forecast is near the middle of the model envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 14.0N 106.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 14.8N 107.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 15.2N 109.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 15.6N 111.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 15.9N 112.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 16.8N 116.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 17.8N 119.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 18.5N 123.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Depression SIX-E (EP1/EP062016)
2016-07-15 16:56:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...AND YET ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM MDT Fri Jul 15 the center of SIX-E was located near 14.0, -106.3 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression SIX-E Public Advisory Number 1
2016-07-15 16:56:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 151456 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 900 AM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016 ...AND YET ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 106.3W ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six-E was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 106.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or early Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression SIX-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2016-07-15 16:56:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 15 2016 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 151456 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 1500 UTC FRI JUL 15 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 33(44) 4(48) 1(49) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) 1(15) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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