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Summary for Tropical Depression BLAS (EP3/EP032016)
2016-07-10 10:32:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...BLAS WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Jul 10 the center of BLAS was located near 21.2, -135.2 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression BLAS Forecast Advisory Number 30
2016-07-10 10:32:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 10 2016 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 100832 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 0900 UTC SUN JUL 10 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 135.2W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 135.2W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 134.7W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.3N 136.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.0N 138.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.5N 141.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 20.0N 143.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 135.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Graphics
2016-07-08 11:12:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Jul 2016 08:36:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Jul 2016 09:06:13 GMT
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Forecast Discussion Number 7
2016-07-08 10:38:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT FRI JUL 08 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 080838 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 300 AM MDT FRI JUL 08 2016 The cloud pattern of the depression is showing signs of becoming better organized. There has been an increase in central convection near the estimated center location and in convective banding to the north and southeast of the center. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on a blend of the latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, while the cyclone moves over a cool patch of SSTs in the wake of Hurricane Blas. After that time, the intensification rate should increase as the cyclone will be moving over warm SSTs in a low shear environment. In 4 to 5 days, the shear is expected to increase and SSTs cool along the track, which should result in weakening. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little below the consensus aid IVCN during the first 24 hours and then close to the consensus through 48 hours. Beyond that time the official forecast is higher than the consensus but not as aggressive as the SHIPS model. The initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 275/05 given the uncertainty in the exact center location. The cyclone should be steered more quickly westward by a building subtropical ridge to the north through the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, a west- northwestward turn is forecast as the system reaches the southwestern edge of the ridge. The guidance has shifted northward this cycle in the short term, in particular the ECMWF, which is now well north of the rest of the models through 48 hours. The new NHC track has been adjusted to the north this cycle, but still lies a little south of the multi-model consensus. Confidence in the details of the track forecast is lower than normal given that the system is still organizing. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 12.5N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 12.7N 113.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 13.0N 115.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 13.2N 116.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 13.5N 119.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 14.2N 123.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 15.7N 127.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 17.3N 131.2W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Tropical Depression FOUR-E (EP4/EP042016)
2016-07-08 10:35:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... As of 3:00 AM MDT Fri Jul 8 the center of FOUR-E was located near 12.5, -112.0 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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