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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Public Advisory Number 6
2016-07-08 04:31:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT THU JUL 07 2016 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 080231 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 900 PM MDT THU JUL 07 2016 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAILED TO STRENGTHEN BUT STILL FORECAST TO DO SO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.3N 111.7W ABOUT 740 MI...1195 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 111.7 West. The depression has been drifting westward near 2 mph (4 km/h). A westward track with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during the next two days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before the weekend begins. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2016-07-07 22:34:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT THU JUL 07 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 072034 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 300 PM MDT THU JUL 07 2016 Recent ASCAT data indicate that the tropical depression has an elongated circulation and is still producing maximum winds around 30 kt. Although deep convection has been increasing in coverage during the day, it is not all that organized and is primarily confined to the eastern and southern semicircles. In addition, dry air appears to be wrapping into the western part of the circulation. Since the cyclone's structure has not yet improved, and the system is about to move over the cold wake of Hurricane Blas, it may take a little more time before significant strengthening can occur. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF models, which should have a good handle on the ambient environment, do not show significant deepening of the cyclone for another 48 hours or so. Therefore, the NHC official intensity forecast has been adjusted downward during the first couple of days, with the depression possibly not becoming a tropical storm until tomorrow. More significant strengthening is expected after 48 hours, but even that could be tempered by interaction with Blas's cold wake. The NHC intensity forecast is at the low end of the guidance through 48 hours and then near the IVCN intensity consensus thereafter. The scatterometer data showed that the low-level center is located a little farther south than previously estimated, and the initial motion is now 275/7 kt. A strong mid-tropospheric ridge extending westward from northern Mexico is forecast to keep the cyclone on a westward course for the next 3 days. By days 4 and 5, the ridge is expected to weaken a bit, which will allow the cyclone to turn west-northwestward. The NHC official track forecast was shifted slightly southward during the first three days to account for the updated initial position. Otherwise, the guidance remains tightly clustered, and there is high confidence in the track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 12.4N 111.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 12.6N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 12.9N 114.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 13.0N 116.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 13.1N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 12.9N 121.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 14.0N 125.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 16.0N 129.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression FOUR-E (EP4/EP042016)
2016-07-07 22:33:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD... ...MAY NOT STRENGTHEN UNTIL FRIDAY... As of 3:00 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 the center of FOUR-E was located near 12.4, -111.7 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Public Advisory Number 5
2016-07-07 22:33:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT THU JUL 07 2016 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 072033 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 300 PM MDT THU JUL 07 2016 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD... ...MAY NOT STRENGTHEN UNTIL FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 111.7W ABOUT 735 MI...1180 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 111.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but the depression may not become a tropical storm until Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2016-07-07 22:33:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 07 2016 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 072033 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 2100 UTC THU JUL 07 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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