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Tropical Depression FIVE-E Public Advisory Number 2
2016-07-12 04:42:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 120242 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 900 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 106.9W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five-E was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 106.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). The cyclone is anticipated to turn toward the west at a slightly faster forward speed during the next two days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts, and some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The system is likely to become a tropical storm by Tuesday and is anticipated to become a hurricane by Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Depression FIVE-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2016-07-12 04:42:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 12 2016 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 120242 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 0300 UTC TUE JUL 12 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 4( 4) 7(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) 7(29) X(29) X(29) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Depression FIVE-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2016-07-12 04:42:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 12 2016 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 120241 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 0300 UTC TUE JUL 12 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 106.9W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 106.9W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 106.5W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 16.1N 108.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 16.2N 110.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.1N 112.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 16.0N 114.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.0N 119.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 16.8N 123.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 18.0N 127.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 106.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Depression FIVE-E Graphics
2016-07-11 23:11:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 11 Jul 2016 20:51:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 11 Jul 2016 21:05:14 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression FIVE-E (EP5/EP052016)
2016-07-11 22:43:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM MDT Mon Jul 11 the center of FIVE-E was located near 15.3, -106.3 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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