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Tropical depression Kilo still expected to strengthen
2015-08-24 04:37:43| Airlines - Topix.net
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu says tropical depression Kilo could strengthen into a tropical storm as early as Sunday. The Honolulu Star-Advertiser reports that as of 2 p.m. Hawaii time forecasters say the storm is about 700 miles southwest of Honolulu.
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Tropical Depression TEN-E Graphics
2015-08-06 10:34:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 06 Aug 2015 08:34:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 06 Aug 2015 08:32:46 GMT
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Tropical Depression TEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2015-08-06 10:33:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU AUG 06 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060833 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015 200 AM PDT THU AUG 06 2015 Dry mid- to upper-level air from the south has wrapped into the circulation and now surrounds the inner core, having completely cut off and weakened the convective band in the northern semicircle. However, a small concentration of deep convection has persisted near and to the west of the well-defined low-level center as noted in recent passive microwave satellite imagery. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates are a consensus T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB, and a partial ASCAT-B overpass around 0552 UTC indicated 27-kt surface winds in the convection just west of the center. Therefore, the initial intensity remains at 30 kt for this advisory. The motion continues to be 270/10 kt. The depression is forecast to maintain a general westward motion for the next 48 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest by 72 hours as the cyclone reaches the southwestern periphery of the deep-layer subtropical ridge located to its north. Most of the 0000 UTC global models, especially the GFS and ECMWF, have backed off somewhat on developing a large break in the ridge to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands by days 4 and 5. This has resulted in a significant westward and southward shift of the guidance envelope. The official forecast track follows suit and has been shifted to the left of the previous advisory track after 72 hours, but not nearly as far left as the GFS-ECMWF model consensus. I would prefer to see a couple of more model runs before making such a large shift in the forecast track, in case this is a diurnal fluctuation for only one cycle. The cyclone is expected to remain over warm waters of at least 28C for the next 72 hours, and in a low-shear environment of 5-10 kt for the next 96 hours. These favorable factors would normally result in significant strengthening. Although proximity to the aforementioned dry air will likely inhibit and disrupt the normal intensification process, the cyclone is still forecast to achieve hurricane status by day 4. Westerly vertical wind shear of at least 20 kt is expected to impinge on the system by day 5, resulting in steady weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the intensity consensus model IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 12.5N 130.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 12.6N 132.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 12.6N 134.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 12.9N 136.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 13.5N 138.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 14.7N 142.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 16.5N 145.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 18.3N 147.4W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Depression TEN-E (EP5/EP102015)
2015-08-06 10:32:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Aug 6 the center of TEN-E was located near 12.5, -130.8 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression TEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2015-08-06 10:32:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 06 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 060832 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015 0900 UTC THU AUG 06 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 130.8W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 130.8W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 130.3W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 12.6N 132.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 12.6N 134.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 12.9N 136.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.5N 138.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.7N 142.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 16.5N 145.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 18.3N 147.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 130.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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