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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 1
2015-08-31 22:38:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 312038 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 300 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015 ...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EAST PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 111.8W ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E was located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 111.8 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast, and the depression could become a tropical storm tomorrow. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Pasch
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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2015-08-31 22:37:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 31 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 312037 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 2100 UTC MON AUG 31 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 111.8W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 111.8W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 111.7W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.5N 113.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.7N 114.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.3N 115.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.3N 115.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.2N 115.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 23.3N 114.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 24.6N 114.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 111.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression SIX Forecast Discussion Number 1
2015-08-30 07:49:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 130 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 300549 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 130 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015 The well-defined low pressure system located to the west of Conakry, Guinea, has acquired sufficient organized convection to be classified as a tropical depression. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on a Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and two earlier ASCAT scatterometer passes indicating at least 30 kt in the southern semicircle. The initial motion estimate is 305/10 kt. The depression is located south of a deep-layer subtropical ridge that extends westward across northwestern Africa and into the eastern Atlantic for several hundred miles. However, a weakness is located in a portion of the ridge to the north of the Cape Verde Islands due to a pronounced mid-latitude trough noted in water vapor imagery digging east-southeastward. This should allow the cyclone to move northwestward toward the Cape Verde Islands through 48 hours. After that time, the NHC model guidance is in fair agreement on the aforementioned trough lifting out, allowing the ridge to build back in, which is expected to force the cyclone on a more westward track. The NHC track forecast lies close to the consensus models TVCA and GFEX. The depression is embedded within favorable environmental and oceanic conditions consisting of low vertical wind shear of less than 10 kt, a moist mid-troposphere, and sea-surface temperatures greater than 28 deg C, which should allow for steady strengthening for the next 48 hours or so. The main inhibiting factor is the decreasing instability ahead of the cyclone after 24-36 hours. However, the possibility still exists for the system to reach hurricane status before or while it moves through the Cape Verde Islands in 36-48 hours. For this reason, the Meteorological Service of the Cape Verde Islands has issued a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning for all of the Cape Verdes. The official intensity forecast is basically a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0530Z 12.1N 18.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 12.7N 19.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 13.9N 21.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 15.3N 23.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 16.6N 24.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 18.3N 29.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 18.9N 32.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 19.3N 36.8W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression SIX Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2015-08-30 07:40:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0530 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 300540 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 0530 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015 AT 0530Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 18.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression SIX Graphics
2015-08-30 07:34:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 30 Aug 2015 05:34:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 30 Aug 2015 05:33:44 GMT
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