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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Graphics
2015-07-29 05:07:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 29 Jul 2015 02:36:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 29 Jul 2015 03:03:45 GMT
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 6
2015-07-29 04:39:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 290239 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015 The depression's cloud pattern is becoming less organized. The low-level center continues to be exposed, and the overall extent of the cyclone's deep convection has diminished since yesterday. What few puffs of convection remain are shapeless and occurring in sporadic bursts. Satellite classifications are T1.5 and T2.0 from TAFB and SAB, respectively, suggesting that 30 kt is still a reasonable intensity estimate. A stiff northwesterly shear of 15 to 20 kt affecting the depression is supposed to decrease considerably during the next couple of days. However, cooler waters and increasingly unfavorable thermodynamic factors such as even less available atmospheric moisture suggest that weakening is likely. In fact, according to the global models, it would be optimistic for depression to survive another 48 hours. The new intensity forecast is essentially the same as the previous one, and is in agreement with the unanimous model guidance calling for dissipation in 2 days or less. The initial motion estimate is 280/10. A low- to mid-level subtropical ridge north of the depression should direct it westward during the next day or so. Once the weak system becomes even shallower, it is expected to trek westward or even west- southwestward in the low-level trade wind flow until dissipation. The official forecast is almost identical to the previous one as well as to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 17.0N 131.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 17.1N 132.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 17.2N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 17.3N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHT-E (EP3/EP082015)
2015-07-29 04:37:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 28 the center of EIGHT-E was located near 17.0, -131.2 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Public Advisory Number 6
2015-07-29 04:37:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 290236 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 131.2W ABOUT 1440 MI...2315 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight-E was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 131.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and the depression is forecast to dissipate by Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2015-07-29 04:37:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 29 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 290236 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015 0300 UTC WED JUL 29 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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