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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 9
2015-07-29 22:33:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 292033 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015 200 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015 Deep convection associated with the depression is becoming less organized and now consists of a nearly linear band through the eastern and southeastern part of the circulation. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. North-northwesterly vertical shear of 10-15 kt is expected to diminish during the next 24 hours, but the circulation is moving into a drier air mass and over lower oceanic heat content values. Degeneration into a trough is expected by 36 hours based on the latest global model guidance. Although not explicitly indicated in the forecast, the depression could become a remnant low before dissipation occurs if it can't maintain organized deep convection. The depression appeared to accelerate suddenly earlier today but has leveled out at a motion of 265/14 kt. A low-level ridge to the north should keep the cyclone moving at this motion until dissipation, and the NHC track forecast follows the GFS-ECMWF consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 16.6N 135.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 16.5N 137.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 16.3N 140.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2015-07-29 22:33:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 29 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 292033 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015 2100 UTC WED JUL 29 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Graphics
2015-07-29 17:07:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 29 Jul 2015 14:37:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 29 Jul 2015 15:03:45 GMT
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 8
2015-07-29 16:37:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 291437 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015 800 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015 A recent AMSR2 microwave pass revealed that the depression still has a well-defined circulation and center, but the deep convection has become less organized since yesterday. The intensity remains at 30 kt based on Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Vertical shear is out of the north-northwest at 10-15 kt, which is lower than yesterday, but the depression has been moving into an increasingly drier air mass. Therefore, the system is forecast to weaken and degenerate into a trough by 48 hours, following the evolution depicted in the global models. The initial motion is 270/11 kt, with the depression being steered westward by the low-level ridge to its north. A westward motion with some acceleration should occur during the next 36 hours before the depression dissipates, and the updated NHC track forecast is shifted only slightly southward to follow the GFS-ECMWF consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 17.0N 133.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 16.9N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 16.8N 138.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 16.6N 141.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHT-E (EP3/EP082015)
2015-07-29 16:37:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR TWO... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Jul 29 the center of EIGHT-E was located near 17.0, -133.6 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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