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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2015-07-30 10:36:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 30 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 300835 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015 0900 UTC THU JUL 30 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression NINE-E Graphics
2015-07-30 04:48:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 30 Jul 2015 02:48:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 30 Jul 2015 02:35:43 GMT
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Tropical Depression NINE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2015-07-30 04:36:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 300235 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015 800 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015 Satellite imagery and reports from NOAA buoy 51307 indicate that the large low pressure area well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California has a closed circulation and sufficient convection to be considered a tropical depression. Thus, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Nine-E. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, which could be conservative given the current convective organization. The initial motion is 280/13. For the next three days or so, a strong low- to mid-level ridge north of the cyclone should steer it generally west-northwestward, and the forecast track is in the center of the guidance envelope during this period. From 72-120 hours, the dynamical models suggest a mid- to upper-level trough should weaken the ridge to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. The guidance becomes somewhat divergent during this time, with the GFS and ECMWF models showing a more northward motion, while the Canadian, UKMET, HWRF, and NAVGEM models show a continued west-northwestward motion. The track forecast follows the GFS/ECMWF solutions in calling for a turn toward the northwest and a decrease in forward speed. The depression is over warm sea surface temperatures and is expected to remain in a moist environment with light vertical wind shear for the next 72 hours or so. This should allow for steady strengthening, and the forecast follows the intensity consensus in calling for the cyclone to become a tropical storm in 12 hours and a hurricane in about 48 hours. After 72 hours, a combination of decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track and westerly shear is expected to cause the cyclone to weaken. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 8.2N 125.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 8.9N 127.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 9.9N 130.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 10.9N 133.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 12.0N 136.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 13.5N 141.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 15.5N 145.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 17.5N 146.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression NINE-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2015-07-30 04:35:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 30 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 300235 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015 0300 UTC THU JUL 30 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 25(34) 5(39) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression NINE-E (EP4/EP092015)
2015-07-30 04:35:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL PACIFIC... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Jul 29 the center of NINE-E was located near 8.2, -125.3 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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