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Tropical Depression TEN-E Graphics
2015-08-06 04:33:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 06 Aug 2015 02:33:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 06 Aug 2015 02:31:47 GMT
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Tropical Depression TEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2015-08-06 04:32:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED AUG 05 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060232 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015 800 PM PDT WED AUG 05 2015 Convection associated with the area of low pressure located well west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has organized into a couple of bands over the northern and eastern portions of the circulation. Visible satellite data also indicates that the circulation has become better defined and advisories are being initiated on the tenth tropical depression of the 2015 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. The depression is moving westward or 270/10 kt. The cyclone is expected to continue heading westward to the south of a narrow mid- to upper-level ridge. After 72 hours, a deepening mid-level trough well to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands is forecast to produce a weakness in the ridge between 140W and 150W longitude. This should result in the cyclone turning west-northwestward, then northwestward late in the forecast period. The dynamical models are in good agreement on this scenario and the NHC track is near the middle of the guidance envelope. The cyclone is forecast to remain over warm waters and in a low shear environment during the next several days. The primary inhibiting factor appears to be some mid-level dry air to the north of the system. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast calls for gradual strengthening during the next 2 to 3 days. After 72 hours, slightly cooler sea surface temperatures and increasing southwesterly shear are expected to induce weakening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 12.5N 129.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 12.5N 131.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 12.5N 133.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 12.6N 135.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 12.9N 136.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 14.2N 140.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 15.8N 143.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 17.8N 145.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Depression TEN-E (EP5/EP102015)
2015-08-06 04:31:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL PACIFIC... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 5 the center of TEN-E was located near 12.5, -129.8 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression TEN-E Public Advisory Number 1
2015-08-06 04:31:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED AUG 05 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 060231 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015 800 PM PDT WED AUG 05 2015 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 129.8W ABOUT 1490 MI...2400 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 129.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression TEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2015-08-06 04:31:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 06 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 060231 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015 0300 UTC THU AUG 06 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 5(21) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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