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Tropical Depression VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 25
2014-11-05 09:40:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM PST WED NOV 05 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 050840 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 100 AM PST WED NOV 05 2014 The end is near for Vance, as the vertical shear over the area is now over 50 kt. With the rapid spindown of the circulation, the maximum winds are now estimated to be about 30 kt, making the cyclone a tropical depression. Accordingly, the government of Mexico has discontinued the tropical storm watch for their country. Vance has been devoid of deep convection anywhere near its center for about 6 hours, and it will likely become a remnant low after moving inland later today. Complete dissipation of the surface circulation is expected within 24 hours or less. Microwave and shortwave infrared imagery indicate that the cyclone center is located a little to the southeast of the previously estimated track. After some retrospective adjustments to the working best track, the initial motion is estimated to be about 050/11 kt. This northeastward movement should continue until dissipation. Although the tropical cyclone will dissipate soon, moisture from Vance or its remnants should continue to spread northeastward across Mexico and into the south-central United States. This is producing heavy rains over portions of these areas which should continue through Thursday or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 21.9N 106.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 23.0N 105.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression VANCE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2014-11-05 09:38:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 05 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 050838 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 0900 UTC WED NOV 05 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAZATLAN 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Depression VANCE (EP1/EP212014)
2014-11-05 09:38:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...VANCE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... ...SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 1:00 AM PST Wed Nov 5 the center of VANCE was located near 21.9, -106.9 with movement NE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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tropical depression
Tropical Depression VANCE Public Advisory Number 25
2014-11-05 09:38:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM PST WED NOV 05 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 050838 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 100 AM PST WED NOV 05 2014 ...VANCE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... ...SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 106.9W ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM NW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... NONE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF VANCE OR ITS REMNANTS WILL MOVE INLAND OVER WESTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND VANCE WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE COMBINATION OF VANCE AND MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES THROUGH TODAY OVER THE STATES OF SINALOA...NAYARIT...AND DURANGO IN WESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY VANCE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...700 AM PST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression VANCE Forecast Advisory Number 25
2014-11-05 09:36:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 05 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 050836 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 0900 UTC WED NOV 05 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... NONE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 106.9W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 106.9W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 107.4W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.0N 105.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 106.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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