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Tropical Depression NINE Graphics
2014-10-22 21:37:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 22 Oct 2014 18:07:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 22 Oct 2014 19:35:44 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression NINE (AT4/AL092014)
2014-10-22 19:31:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DRIFTING EASTWARD... As of 1:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 the center of NINE was located near 19.3, -92.1 with movement E at 4 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression NINE Public Advisory Number 3A
2014-10-22 19:31:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 221731 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 100 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DRIFTING EASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 92.1W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CELESTUN TO FRONTERA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.1 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING EASTWARD ABOUT 4 MPH...6 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND...BUT SOME WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression NINE Graphics
2014-10-22 16:54:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 22 Oct 2014 14:53:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 22 Oct 2014 14:53:43 GMT
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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 3
2014-10-22 16:53:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 221453 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 1000 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 Satellite images and data from an Air Force hurricane hunter plane indicate that the depression has not strengthened since yesterday. The circulation remains well defined but the convection is not well organized, although new thunderstom activity is currently developing near the center. The cyclone continues to be affected by moderate westerly shear which should limit development. However, it is still expected to become a tropical storm before moving inland over the Yucatan peninsula where weakening is anticipated. If the depression emerges over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in about 3 days, there is an opportunity for some strengthening. Most of the global models, primarily the GFS and the HWRF, forecast a favorable upper-level environment for the system to redevelop, if the the cyclone survives its path over land. On this basis, the NHC forecast now maintains tropical depression status through five days. Steering currents are weak, and the depression has been meandering during the past few hours. The cyclone is located at the base of a mid-level trough, and most likely the depression will drift eastward for the next 3 days while on the south side of the trough. Once in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, the trough is forecast to lift out and a narrow ridge will develop to the north of the cyclone. This synoptic pattern should keep the cyclone with little motion in the northwestern Caribbean Sea late in the forecast period. However, the final portion of the NHC forecast continues to be highly uncertain, and is based on the blend of the GFS, ECMWF and HWRF model solutions. Rains currently affecting western Cuba and south Florida are not directly related to the tropical depression. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 19.4N 92.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 19.3N 91.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 19.0N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/0000Z 18.8N 89.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/1200Z 18.5N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 25/1200Z 18.5N 87.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 18.5N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 18.5N 84.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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