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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Graphics
2014-10-30 16:04:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 30 Oct 2014 14:47:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 30 Oct 2014 15:04:14 GMT
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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2014-10-30 15:46:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 301446 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 800 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014 The depression has become a little better organized with a more prominent central dense overcast feature forming overnight. However, recent microwave images show that the center remains on the southwestern edge of the deep convection, suggesting that southwesterly shear continues to affect the depression. Although the overall satellite presentation has improved, Dvorak intensity estimates are unchanged, so the initial wind speed will conservatively remain 30 kt. Although the depression is over warm water, southwesterly shear and dry air in the low- to mid-levels are expected to continue for the next day or two. As a result, the latest model guidance does not show a lot of strengthening, and the NHC forecast continues the trend of showing only slow intensification. After that time, the global models forecast a reduction in the shear, along with an increase in moisture. These conditions should promote more significant strengthening at longer ranges. The NHC forecast is closest to the SHIPS models at days 3-4, and remains above the model consensus after considering the favorable large-scale environment. Increasing south-southwesterly shear could halt any additional strengthening after that time. The center appears to have reformed a little northeast of the previous estimates closer to the stronger thunderstorm activity, leading to an uncertain initial motion estimate of west at 5 kt. The depression is forecast to turn west-southwestward and southwestward during the next 36 hours while a mid-level ridge builds to the north and northwest of the cyclone. The ridge is forecast to shift eastward during the next few days, which should cause the cyclone to turn west-northwestward and then northwestward in 48 to 72 hours. After that time, the tropical cyclone is forecast to turn northward while a mid-latitude trough approaches the Baja California peninsula. The official NHC forecast is a little faster than the consensus after accounting for the unrealistically slow HWRF solution, and is very close to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 11.5N 100.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 11.4N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 10.7N 102.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 10.4N 103.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 10.4N 105.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 11.9N 108.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 15.5N 110.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 20.0N 108.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2014-10-30 15:46:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 30 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 301446 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 1500 UTC THU OCT 30 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 100.9W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 100.9W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 100.7W FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 11.4N 101.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 10.7N 102.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 10.4N 103.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 10.4N 105.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.9N 108.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 15.5N 110.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 108.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 100.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2014-10-30 15:46:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 30 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 301446 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 1500 UTC THU OCT 30 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 15(32) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 9(38) 1(39) CLIPPERTON IS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) 1(13) CLIPPERTON IS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E (EP1/EP212014)
2014-10-30 15:46:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Oct 30 the center of TWENTY-ONE-E was located near 11.5, -100.9 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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