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Summary for Tropical Depression NINE (AT4/AL092014)
2014-10-22 13:47:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... ...AIR FORCE PLANE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE CYCLONE... As of 7:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 the center of NINE was located near 19.4, -92.4 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression NINE Public Advisory Number 2A
2014-10-22 13:47:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 221147 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 700 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 ...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... ...AIR FORCE PLANE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 92.4W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CELESTUN TO FRONTERA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/H...LATER THIS MORNING. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF CAMPECHE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IN CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression NINE Graphics
2014-10-22 10:42:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 22 Oct 2014 08:42:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 22 Oct 2014 08:31:44 GMT
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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 2
2014-10-22 10:39:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 220839 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 400 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 After the increase of deep convection noted earlier, thunderstorm activity associated with depression has leveled off, and recently cloud tops have warmed. Also, the tropical cyclone's presentation on the Sabancuy, Mexico radar imagery has become less organized. The current intensity of the system is held at 30 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the depression later this morning to check its intensity. The depression continues to be affected by southwesterly shear, but the dynamical guidance indicates some weakening of this shear within the next 24 hours. This should allow for some strengthening of the system over the warm waters of the eastern Bay of Campeche, prior to reaching the Yucatan Peninsula tonight. After weakening due to its passage across Yucatan, drier air associated with a frontal system and west-southwesterly shear are expected to prevent reintensification. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one. Since the system is quite small, it might be disrupted more than expected by its interaction with land -- and weaken or degenerate into a remnant low sooner than shown by the NHC forecast. The cyclone continues to move eastward, or 090/5 kt. A generally westerly mid-level environmental flow should carry the system across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the forecast period. The official track forecast is nudged only slightly to the south of the previous one, but is north of the multi-model consensus. It should be noted that due to the possible interaction with a baroclinic cyclone to the northeast in the latter part of the period, the track forecast becomes more uncertain by days 4 and 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 19.4N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 19.4N 91.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 19.3N 90.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/1800Z 19.1N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/0600Z 18.9N 88.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 25/0600Z 18.5N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 26/0600Z 18.5N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0600Z 18.5N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression NINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2014-10-22 10:33:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 22 2014 000 FONT14 KNHC 220833 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 0900 UTC WED OCT 22 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FRONTERA MX 34 10 2(12) X(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MERIDA MX 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) COZUMEL MX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) BELIZE 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 7(12) 4(16) 1(17) X(17) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 1(11) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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