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Summary for Tropical Depression NINE (AT4/AL092014)
2014-10-23 01:54:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SMALL DEPRESSION NEARING THE COAST OF CAMPECHE... ...COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY... As of 7:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 the center of NINE was located near 19.1, -91.2 with movement ESE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression NINE Public Advisory Number 4A
2014-10-23 01:54:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 222354 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 700 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 ...SMALL DEPRESSION NEARING THE COAST OF CAMPECHE... ...COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 91.2W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... NONE FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.2 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H ...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE ASHORE ALONG THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF CAMPECHE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST WHILE THE DEPRESSION MOVES INLAND...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A REMNANT TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression NINE Graphics
2014-10-22 23:08:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 22 Oct 2014 20:33:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 22 Oct 2014 21:04:45 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression NINE (AT4/AL092014)
2014-10-22 22:31:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAILED TO STRENGTHEN SO FAR... As of 4:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 the center of NINE was located near 19.2, -91.7 with movement ESE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 4
2014-10-22 22:31:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 222031 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 400 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 The depression still has a well defined circulation, but the associated convection has been gradually decreasing during the day. Based on earlier reconnaissance data, the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt. Given the deterioration of the cloud pattern and the shear over the cyclone, it is less likely that the depression will attain tropical storm status before it moves inland over the Yucatan peninsula in about 12 hours or less. The NHC forecast keeps the cyclone as a tropical depression through 5 days as it crosses Yucatan and moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. There is also a chance that the system dissipates over land in about 24 hours or so. The GFS changed its tune significantly between the 06z and the 12z runs. It developed a strong tropical storm in the Caribbean in the earlier run, and only a weak trough in the 12z one. On the other hand, both the ECMWF and the HWRF maintain a cyclone for the next few days. This makes the intensity forecast highly uncertain, primarily since the GFS model could redevelop a cyclone in the next run. The depression has been moving slowly toward the east-southeast or 115 degrees at 4 knots. The cyclone is located at the base of a mid-level trough, embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. This pattern will steer the depression on a general eastward track over Yucatan, and as the trough lifts out the depression could meander in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Rains currently affecting western Cuba and south Florida are not directly related to the tropical depression. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 19.2N 91.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 19.0N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/1800Z 18.6N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/0600Z 18.0N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/1800Z 18.0N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 25/1800Z 18.0N 87.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 18.0N 85.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 18.0N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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