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Tropical Depression NINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2014-10-22 16:53:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 22 2014 000 FONT14 KNHC 221453 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 1500 UTC WED OCT 22 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FRONTERA MX 34 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) MERIDA MX 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) BELIZE 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 9(13) 4(17) 1(18) X(18) BELIZE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Advisory Number 3
2014-10-22 16:52:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 22 2014 000 WTNT24 KNHC 221452 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 1500 UTC WED OCT 22 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CELESTUN TO FRONTERA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 92.4W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 92.4W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 92.4W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.3N 91.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 19.0N 90.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.8N 89.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 18.5N 88.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.5N 87.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 18.5N 85.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 18.5N 84.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 92.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Tropical Depression NINE (AT4/AL092014)
2014-10-22 16:52:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MEANDERING OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE... As of 10:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 the center of NINE was located near 19.4, -92.4 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression NINE Public Advisory Number 3
2014-10-22 16:52:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 221452 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 1000 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MEANDERING OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 92.4W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CELESTUN TO FRONTERA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY...BUT A SLOW EASTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND...BUT SOME WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression NINE Graphics
2014-10-22 13:56:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 22 Oct 2014 11:56:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 22 Oct 2014 09:04:44 GMT
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