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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Public Advisory Number 1
2014-07-26 10:47:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 260847 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 106.3W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS MORNING. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2014-07-26 10:47:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 26 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 260847 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 0900 UTC SAT JUL 26 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 5( 5) 15(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 32(33) 35(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 25(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2014-07-26 10:47:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 26 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 260847 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 0900 UTC SAT JUL 26 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 106.3W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 106.3W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 105.8W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 14.7N 108.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.4N 110.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.9N 113.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.2N 115.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.2N 119.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 22.0N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 22.0N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 106.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression TWO Graphics
2014-07-23 11:08:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 23 Jul 2014 08:35:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Jul 2014 09:04:44 GMT
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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 7
2014-07-23 10:35:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST WED JUL 23 2014 000 WTNT42 KNHC 230834 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014 500 AM AST WED JUL 23 2014 The small tropical depression has maintained an area of deep convection overnight. However, recent microwave imagery indicates that the convection is not particularly well organized. An AMSR2 image from 0435 UTC also shows that the circulation may be losing definition. The depression is currently passing just south of NOAA Buoy 41040 which has recently reported a peak one-minute wind of 27 kt and a minimum pressure of 1013.8 mb. Based on a TAFB Dvorak classification and the buoy observations, the initial wind speed remains 30 kt. The environment ahead of the depression is forecast to become even more hostile than it has been, due to increasing vertical shear and dry air. These conditions should cause the depression to weaken during the next day or so, and the cyclone is expected to degenerate into a trough of low pressure within 48 hours. All of the dynamical models show the depression becoming an open trough before reaching the Lesser Antilles, and it is quite possible that the cyclone will dissipate sooner than shown below. The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward at 17 kt. The depression or its remnants will continue moving west-northwestward to westward with some increase in forward speed during the next day or so. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is near the consensus of the ECMWF and GFS models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 13.9N 53.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 14.3N 56.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 14.9N 59.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 15.4N 64.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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