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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Advisory Number 1
2014-07-21 22:31:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 21 2014 000 WTNT22 KNHC 212031 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014 2100 UTC MON JUL 21 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 43.8W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 43.8W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 43.1W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 11.9N 45.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 12.3N 48.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 12.8N 51.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 13.4N 54.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.0N 61.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 43.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression TWO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2014-07-21 22:31:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 21 2014 000 FONT12 KNHC 212031 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014 2100 UTC MON JUL 21 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression FAUSTO Graphics
2014-07-09 11:08:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 09 Jul 2014 08:40:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 09 Jul 2014 09:04:46 GMT
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Tropical Depression FAUSTO Forecast Discussion Number 7
2014-07-09 10:40:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUL 09 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 090840 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014 200 AM PDT WED JUL 09 2014 Fausto has continued to lose organization overnight. The deep convection associated with the tropical cyclone has become disorganized and appears to be separated from the center that was tracked in the last few visible satellite images. Recent ASCAT data suggest that the circulation has become elongated from northeast to southwest and that it has possibly become an open trough of low pressure. The highest believable winds from the ASCAT passes were 25 to 30 kt to the northeast of the alleged center. Based on these data, the initial intensity is reduced to 30 kt. Despite being located in a low shear environment and over warm water, Fausto has likely weakened during the past 24 hours due to the entrainment of dry mid-level air. Although Fausto is forecast to remain over warm water and in low shear for another 24 hours, poor thermodynamic factors should prevent restrengthening. After that time, westerly shear is forecast to increase which should cause the final demise of Fausto, if it does not occur sooner. One very possible scenario is for the circulation to dissipate and become an open trough within the next 24 hours. This solution is generally favored by the GFS and ECMWF models. The somewhat uncertain initial motion estimate is 285 degrees at 16 kt. Fausto should continue moving west-northwestward to westward during the next several days to the south of a strong low- to mid-level ridge. The track guidance agrees on this scenario but has shifted southward this cycle. Since the updated NHC intensity forecast predicts a weaker and shallower system, it is more likely that Fausto or its remnants will move more westward. As a result, the NHC track has been adjusted southward. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 11.4N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 11.9N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 12.5N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 13.0N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 13.5N 140.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0600Z 14.5N 145.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression FAUSTO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2014-07-09 10:40:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 09 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 090840 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAUSTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014 0900 UTC WED JUL 09 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAUSTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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