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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 6
2014-07-23 04:36:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014 000 WTNT42 KNHC 230236 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014 1100 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014 The tropical depression is producing a little more deep convection than it was earlier today. Satellite images indicate that the convective pattern consists of a small circular area of thunderstorms near the estimated center, with limited banding features surrounding it. The initial wind speed remains 30 kt based on a Dvorak classification from TAFB and ADT values from UW-CIMSS. The global models show the depression becoming highly titled in the vertical during the next day or so due to a substantial increase in shear. These unfavorable environmental winds combined with a dry air mass should prevent significant strengthening. The cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low or open into a trough in 36 to 48 h, but this could occur sooner as suggested by some of the models. The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 16 kt. An even faster westward to west-northwestward motion is predicted, taking the depression, or its remnants, across the the Lesser Antilles late Wednesday or on Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 13.4N 51.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 13.7N 53.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 14.4N 57.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 15.1N 61.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 15.9N 65.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression TWO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2014-07-23 04:36:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 23 2014 000 FONT12 KNHC 230236 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014 0300 UTC WED JUL 23 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) AVES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Depression TWO (AT2/AL022014)
2014-07-23 04:35:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Jul 22 the center of TWO was located near 13.4, -51.4 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression TWO Public Advisory Number 6
2014-07-23 04:35:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014 000 WTNT32 KNHC 230235 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014 1100 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014 ...DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 51.4W ABOUT 675 MI...1090 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.4 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. A SLIGHTLY FASTER WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON THURSDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.89 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Advisory Number 6
2014-07-23 04:35:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 23 2014 000 WTNT22 KNHC 230235 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014 0300 UTC WED JUL 23 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 51.4W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 51.4W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 50.4W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 13.7N 53.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.4N 57.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.1N 61.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.9N 65.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 51.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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