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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 2
2014-07-22 04:42:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014 000 WTNT42 KNHC 220242 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014 1100 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014 The compact depression has not changed much during the past several hours. The system is producing a small area of deep convection near the center and a few fragmented bands mainly on the south side of the circulation. An ASCAT pass around 0010 UTC captured the western half of the system and indicated that winds are light and variable to the south of the center, suggesting that the system has not become better defined. The dynamical models, both regional and global, are in good agreement in showing the system weakening into a trough by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles. The primary reasons for the weakening in these models appear to be dry air and possibly mid-level shear. The SHIPS and LGEM models show the cyclone gaining strength, but this scenario seems unlikely given the expected unfavorable environmental conditions. The official intensity forecast follows the trend in the dynamical model guidance, and is the same as the previous forecast. Satellite fixes suggest that depression has moved a little to the north of the previous track, and the latest initial motion estimate is 280/14. A subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should keep it moving westward to west-northwestward during the next few days. This track takes the depression, or its remnants, over the Lesser Antilles in 2 to 3 days. The NHC track forecast is a little to the north of the previous one, primarily to account for the initial position, and lies fairly close to the multi-model consensus TVCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 12.0N 45.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 12.5N 47.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 13.0N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 13.5N 52.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 14.5N 56.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 16.7N 63.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression TWO (AT2/AL022014)
2014-07-22 04:38:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Jul 21 the center of TWO was located near 12.0, -45.1 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression TWO Public Advisory Number 2
2014-07-22 04:38:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014 000 WTNT32 KNHC 220238 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014 1100 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.0N 45.1W ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.1 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.89 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression TWO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2014-07-22 04:38:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014 000 FONT12 KNHC 220238 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014 0300 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Advisory Number 2
2014-07-22 04:37:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014 000 WTNT22 KNHC 220237 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014 0300 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 45.1W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 45.1W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 44.4W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 12.5N 47.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.0N 49.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 13.5N 52.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.5N 56.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.7N 63.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 45.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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