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Tropical Depression TWO Graphics
2014-07-22 22:34:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Jul 2014 20:34:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Jul 2014 20:33:44 GMT
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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 5
2014-07-22 22:34:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014 000 WTNT42 KNHC 222034 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014 500 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014 The satellite presentation of the depression has become less impressive this afternoon. The coverage and structure of the cold cloud tops has decreased, and visible imagery suggests that the low-level center is located on the east side of the convective canopy. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on the latest TAFB Dvorak classification. The intensity forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as the dry air surrounding the cyclone already appears to be taking a toll on the system. The dry air and an increase in shear should result in gradual weakening and the cyclone opening up into a trough in a couple of days near the Lesser Antilles, although a 48-hour remnant low point is provided for continuity. It is also possible that the system could dissipate even sooner. The initial motion estimate is 280/16, and a quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue through dissipation as the depression is steered by a deep-layer ridge to the north. The new NHC track is similar to the previous one and is close to the latest GFS, ECMWF, and GEFS ensemble mean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 12.9N 49.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 13.2N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 13.8N 55.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 14.5N 58.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 15.5N 62.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Depression TWO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2014-07-22 22:33:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014 000 FONT12 KNHC 222033 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014 2100 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Summary for Tropical Depression TWO (AT2/AL022014)
2014-07-22 22:33:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Jul 22 the center of TWO was located near 12.9, -49.6 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression TWO Public Advisory Number 5
2014-07-22 22:33:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014 000 WTNT32 KNHC 222033 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014 500 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 49.6W ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.6 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON THURSDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.89 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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