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Tropical Depression TWO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2014-07-22 16:33:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014 000 FONT12 KNHC 221433 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014 1500 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Advisory Number 4
2014-07-22 16:31:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014 000 WTNT22 KNHC 221431 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014 1500 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 48.0W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 48.0W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 47.2W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 12.9N 50.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 13.3N 53.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 13.9N 56.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.8N 60.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 48.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression TWO Graphics
2014-07-22 15:25:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Jul 2014 12:05:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Jul 2014 13:24:44 GMT
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Tropical Depression TWO Graphics
2014-07-22 10:33:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Jul 2014 08:33:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Jul 2014 08:32:49 GMT
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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 3
2014-07-22 10:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014 000 WTNT42 KNHC 220832 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014 500 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014 There has been little change in the appearance of the depression in overnight infrared satellite imagery. The cyclone continues to produce a small area of convection that is organized into a band over the western and southwestern portions of the circulation. The initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory, which is supported by a TAFB Dvorak T-number of 2.0. As previous advisories have noted, the environment ahead of the depression does not favor strengthening. Dry air and an increase in shear are expected to cause weakening during the next day or two, and all of the dynamical models show the system becoming a trough of low pressure by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles. The NHC forecast follows this reasoning and calls for dissipation in 2 to 3 days. The center of the depression has been difficult to locate overnight, but it appears to still be moving westward or 280 degrees at 14 kt. The depression or its remnants are forecast to continue moving westward to west-northwestward to the south of a strong deep-layer ridge during the next few days. The track guidance is tightly clustered, but has shifted southward this cycle. As a result, the new NHC track forecast is a little south of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 12.2N 46.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 12.5N 48.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 13.0N 51.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 13.5N 54.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 14.5N 58.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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