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Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2014-05-23 10:44:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 230844 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 200 AM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014 Convective banding is currently increasing near the center of Tropical Depression One-E over the northern semicircle. There have been multiple recent scatterometer overpasses, with recent ASCAT-A data showing an area of 25-30 kt winds about 60-75 n mi from the center over the northeastern quadrant. Based on this, the initial intensity is increased to 30 kt. The cirrus outflow is good in all directions. However, analyses from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin suggest some light southerly shear continues to affect the system. The scatterometer fixes have helped pin down the center location, and the initial motion is estimated at 295/4. The depression is south of a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a deep-layer trough over the western United States. While the large-scale models forecast this trough to move eastward, the subtropical ridge is likely to remain weak with the tropical cyclone remaining in an area of light steering currents for most of the forecast period. While the guidance shows a large spread, there is general agreement that the depression should move slowly west-northwestward for the next 2-3 days, followed by a turn to the north as a mid/upper-level trough develops near 120W and a mid/upper-level ridge develops east of the cyclone. The new forecast track is near the previous track through 72 hour and is nudged a little to the east of the previous track after that time. The track lies north of the model consensus through 72 hours and west of the consensus at 96 and 120 hours. The depression is currently expected to be in an area of light/ moderate southerly vertical wind shear during the forecast period. This should allow at least gradual strengthening, and the new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast and the intensity consensus. There are two potential, and contradictory, issues with the intensity forecast. The first is that the large-scale models forecast moderate to strong upper-level winds near the cyclone during the forecast period, especially after 72 hours. If these winds get closer to the system than currently forecast, they could inhibit development. The second is that the SHIPS rapid intensification index is showing a significantly above- normal chance of rapid intensification, and the GFDL model forecasts the depression to reach hurricane strength in about 72 hours. If the stronger upper-level wind do not impact the cyclone, it could strengthen more than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 10.8N 108.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 11.1N 108.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 11.3N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 11.5N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 11.6N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 12.0N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 12.5N 112.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 13.5N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2014-05-23 10:44:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI MAY 23 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 230843 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 0900 UTC FRI MAY 23 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 108.2W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 108.2W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 108.0W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 11.1N 108.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 11.3N 109.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 11.5N 110.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 11.6N 110.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 12.0N 111.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 12.5N 112.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 13.5N 112.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.8N 108.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression ONE-E (EP1/EP012014)
2014-05-23 10:44:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri May 23 the center of ONE-E was located near 10.8, -108.2 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression ONE-E Public Advisory Number 3
2014-05-23 10:44:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 230843 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 200 AM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.8N 108.2W ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression ONE-E Graphics
2014-05-23 05:07:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 May 2014 02:37:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 May 2014 03:03:46 GMT
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