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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2013-11-03 03:33:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 03 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 030233 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 0300 UTC SUN NOV 03 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 7 18 42 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 29 39 45 38 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 69 51 35 19 NA NA NA HURRICANE X 3 2 1 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 3 2 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 35KT 30KT 20KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 8( 8) 5(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 7( 7) 7(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CULIACAN 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 34 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E (EP3/EP182013)
2013-11-03 03:33:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Nov 2 the center of EIGHTEEN-E was located near 18.3, -110.1 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 8
2013-11-03 03:33:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT NOV 02 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 030233 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 800 PM PDT SAT NOV 02 2013 ...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 110.1W ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSW OF CULIACAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TOPOLOBAMPO TO LA CRUZ A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND ELSEWHERE IN WEST-CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.1 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED BY LATE SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY...AND APPROACH THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AREA EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY EARLY MONDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 8
2013-11-03 03:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 03 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 030232 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 0300 UTC SUN NOV 03 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TOPOLOBAMPO TO LA CRUZ A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND ELSEWHERE IN WEST-CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 110.1W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 110.1W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 110.0W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.4N 110.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.6N 109.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 24.1N 107.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 26.5N 106.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 110.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Graphics
2013-11-03 00:33:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Nov 2013 23:33:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Nov 2013 21:06:43 GMT
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