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Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E (EP3/EP182013)
2013-11-03 00:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT... As of 5:00 PM PDT Sat Nov 2 the center of EIGHTEEN-E was located near 17.9, -109.9 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 7A
2013-11-03 00:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM PDT SAT NOV 02 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 022332 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 500 PM PDT SAT NOV 02 2013 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 109.9W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SSW OF CULIACAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TOPOLOBAMPO TO LA CRUZ A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND ELSEWHERE IN WEST-CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.9 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED BY LATE SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL PASS NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AND APPROACH THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AREA ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY EARLY MONDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Graphics
2013-11-02 22:10:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Nov 2013 20:37:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Nov 2013 21:06:43 GMT
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 7
2013-11-02 21:38:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT NOV 02 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 022038 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 200 PM PDT SAT NOV 02 2013 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION THAN EARLIER...ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 30 KT...BUT THE SYSTEM COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER. MICROWAVE AND OTHER SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KT. THIS MOTION SHOULD BE TEMPORARY HOWEVER...AS A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN IT TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST BY LATE SUNDAY. ONLY SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST ECMWF AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS STILL AMPLE TIME FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. WIND SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE A LITTLE BIT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH WILL PROBABLY ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE BY 36H...WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE WEAKENING WHILE THE CYCLONE APPROACHES MAINLAND MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GUIDANCE SUITE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MEXICO GIVEN THE SMALL... BUT NOT NEGLIGIBLE...CHANCES OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 17.7N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 18.5N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 20.3N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 22.9N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 25.5N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 7
2013-11-02 21:36:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 02 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 022036 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 2100 UTC SAT NOV 02 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO TO LA CRUZ. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TOPOLOBAMPO TO LA CRUZ A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND ELSEWHERE IN WEST-CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 109.8W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 109.8W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 109.6W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.5N 110.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.3N 109.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.9N 108.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 25.5N 107.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 109.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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