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Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2014-05-22 23:01:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU MAY 22 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 222101 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 200 PM PDT THU MAY 22 2014 Corrected wording in third paragraph discussing SHIPS RI index. Deep convection associated with an area of low pressure well to the southwest of Mexico has gradually become better organized during the past 12 to 24 hours, and a 1708 UTC ASCAT-B pass indicated that the system has a sufficiently well-defined center. Therefore, advisories are being initiated on the first tropical depression of the eastern North Pacific season. The initial intensity is set at 25 kt based on the ASCAT data and satellite estimates of T1.5 from both TAFB and SAB. The depression has been moving slowly toward the west-northwest while located on the edge of a mid-level ridge extending west from Mexico, and the initial motion estimate is 285/3 kt. The depression is expected to remain just to the west of the ridge and to the south of a deep-layer cyclone centered over California, which will likely keep it in a weak steering environment for the next 3 to 4 days. In fact, the ECMWF model even shows the depression becoming nearly stationary or meandering for a few days due to the weak steering. The official forecast shows a relatively slow track toward the west-northwest during the next 5 days and is close to the model consensus TVCE. The depression is embedded in an environment of light vertical shear, which will likely support at least gradual intensification during the next few days. There is some disagreement among the intensity models as to how much strengthening will occur, however. For example, the statistical LGEM keeps the depression below tropical storm strength for about 48 hours. On the other hand, the SHIPS RI index indicates a 42 percent chance of a 25-kt increase in winds within the next 24 hours. With the RI index relatively high, the official forecast is higher than the LGEM for the first few days. By days 4 and 5, vertical shear is expected to strengthen, and the intensity is forecast to level off or decrease by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 10.3N 107.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 10.5N 108.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 10.8N 108.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 11.1N 109.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 11.4N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 11.7N 110.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 12.0N 111.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 12.0N 113.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression ONE-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2014-05-22 22:41:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU MAY 22 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 222037 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 2100 UTC THU MAY 22 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) CLIPPERTON IS 34 5 22(27) 13(40) 5(45) 3(48) 1(49) X(49) CLIPPERTON IS 50 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) CLIPPERTON IS 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Tropical Depression ONE-E (EP1/EP012014)
2014-05-22 22:39:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu May 22 the center of ONE-E was located near 10.3, -107.4 with movement WNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression ONE-E Public Advisory Number 1
2014-05-22 22:39:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU MAY 22 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 222037 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 200 PM PDT THU MAY 22 2014 ...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.3N 107.4W ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H ...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression ONE-E Graphics
2014-05-22 22:38:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 May 2014 20:38:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 May 2014 20:37:46 GMT
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