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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2013-11-02 21:36:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 02 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 022036 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 2100 UTC SAT NOV 02 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 6 11 26 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 29 37 39 41 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 69 54 45 31 NA NA NA HURRICANE X 3 4 2 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 3 4 2 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 35KT 35KT 25KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 16 8(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E (EP3/EP182013)
2013-11-02 21:36:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR MAINLAND MEXICO... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Nov 2 the center of EIGHTEEN-E was located near 17.7, -109.8 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 7
2013-11-02 21:36:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT NOV 02 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 022036 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 200 PM PDT SAT NOV 02 2013 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR MAINLAND MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 109.8W ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM SSW OF CULIACAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO TO LA CRUZ. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TOPOLOBAMPO TO LA CRUZ A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND ELSEWHERE IN WEST-CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED BY LATE SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL PASS NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AND APPROACH THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AREA ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY EARLY MONDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Graphics
2013-11-02 16:08:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Nov 2013 14:53:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Nov 2013 15:04:45 GMT
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 6
2013-11-02 15:53:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT NOV 02 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 021453 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 800 AM PDT SAT NOV 02 2013 CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION...BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES STILL SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME EXPANSION OF THE CIRRUS CLOUDS EAST OF THE CENTER...SO PERHAPS THE EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE WAY DOWN. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN 30 KT AS A BLEND OF THE TAFB/SAB DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT. A TURN TO THE NORTH THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO AN APPROACHING CLOSED LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON THIS TRACK...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A 72H FORECAST IS INCLUDED FOR CONTINUITY...BUT THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE DISSIPATED BY THEN. IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN WINDS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM...AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES HAVE A COUPLE OF MORE MODELS THAT SHOW THIS SOLUTION. THUS THE NEW FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST STRENGTHENING. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE AFTER 36H...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN WHILE ITS APPROACHES MAINLAND MEXICO. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS NOT FAR FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...WITHIN A FEW KNOTS OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION AND THE LOW CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...THE CYCLONE IS UNLIKELY TO CAUSE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER MEXICO. THUS...IT IS PRUDENT TO WAIT FOR ANY TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SINALOA SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 17.6N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 18.3N 109.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 19.6N 110.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 21.9N 109.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 24.8N 107.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 05/1200Z 28.5N 105.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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