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Tropical Depression SONIA Forecast Advisory Number 13
2013-11-04 09:33:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON NOV 04 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 040833 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SONIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 0900 UTC MON NOV 04 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND WARNING FOR THE COAST OF SINALOA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 107.3W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 107.3W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 107.4W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 25.0N 107.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 107.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Graphics
2013-11-03 06:46:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Nov 2013 05:46:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Nov 2013 03:04:45 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E (EP3/EP182013)
2013-11-03 06:44:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AS IT PASSES WELL TO THE EAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND... As of 11:00 PM PDT Sat Nov 2 the center of EIGHTEEN-E was located near 18.5, -110.0 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 8A
2013-11-03 06:44:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM PDT SAT NOV 02 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 030544 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 1100 PM PDT SAT NOV 02 2013 ...DEPRESSION NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AS IT PASSES WELL TO THE EAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 110.0W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM SSW OF CULIACAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TOPOLOBAMPO TO LA CRUZ A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND ELSEWHERE IN WEST-CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING...PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY...AND APPROACH THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY EARLY MONDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...100 AM PST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 8
2013-11-03 03:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT NOV 02 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 030234 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 800 PM PDT SAT NOV 02 2013 THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAVE MOVED FARTHER AWAY FROM THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION...AND THE TOPS HAVE WARMED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER HAD NOT BECOME ANY BETTER DEFINED...WITH MULTIPLE CLOUD SWIRLS NOTED WITHIN THE BROADER CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR...AND THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE THE SHEAR DECREASES IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES DRAMATICALLY AHEAD OF A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRENGTHENING...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL SHOWS THE CYCLONE REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WHEN THE CYCLONE APPROACHES MAINLAND MEXICO IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AS THE SHEAR INCREASES FURTHER. THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT A BLEND OF THE LATEST FIXES AND CONTINUITY PROVIDES AN UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 320/5. THE CYCLONE SHOULD RECURVE AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE ABOVE-MENTIONED TROUGH IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD LEAD TO A NORTHWARD TURN IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NHC TRACK IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 18.3N 110.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 19.4N 110.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 21.6N 109.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 24.1N 107.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 26.5N 106.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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