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Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2014-05-23 04:38:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU MAY 22 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 230237 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 800 PM PDT THU MAY 22 2014 The convective appearance of the depression is somewhat disheveled this evening, as the coldest cloud tops are located north and east of the estimated center position. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from SAB. The satellite presentation, satellite analyses from UW-CIMSS, and the SHIPS model suggest that some southerly and westerly shear associated with a mid/upper-level trough well to the north is currently affecting the cyclone. During the next day or so, this environment should support only gradual intensification. As the trough moves away the shear should decrease, which should allow for more strengthening later in the period while the cyclone is over warm waters. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one through 72 hours, and has been adjusted upward toward the IVCN intensity consensus after that time, and is close to a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models. The center of the depression has been difficult to locate with geostationary and microwave imagery. However, a blend of satellite fixes and continuity yields an initial motion of 290/04. The cyclone is expected to move slowly west-northwestward for the next couple of days, as a mid-level ridge to the east weakens and the trough north of the depression moves eastward. Through 48 hours the new official forecast is a little faster than the previous one and is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. Later in the period much of the guidance has shifted northward, with the GFS, GEFS ensemble mean, and GFDL taking the cyclone sharply poleward by day 5 as a ridge rebuilds to the east. The HWRF also shows a northward turn but is slower, while the ECMWF shows a much slower motion farther to the east of the rest of the guidance. Given the large shift in the guidance this cycle, only small adjustments have been made to the NHC forecast late in the period. The NHC track is close to the previous one at days 3 and 4, and has been adjusted a little to the north and east at day 5, but remains well south of the multi-model consensus at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 10.6N 107.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 10.8N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 11.1N 109.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 11.4N 109.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 11.6N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 11.8N 110.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 12.0N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 12.5N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Depression ONE-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2014-05-23 04:35:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI MAY 23 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 230235 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 0300 UTC FRI MAY 23 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CLIPPERTON IS 34 8 24(32) 9(41) 4(45) 4(49) 1(50) 1(51) CLIPPERTON IS 50 X 5( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) CLIPPERTON IS 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Summary for Tropical Depression ONE-E (EP1/EP012014)
2014-05-23 04:35:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM FRIDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu May 22 the center of ONE-E was located near 10.6, -107.8 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression ONE-E Public Advisory Number 2
2014-05-23 04:35:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU MAY 22 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 230235 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 800 PM PDT THU MAY 22 2014 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.6N 107.8W ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H ...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2014-05-23 04:33:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI MAY 23 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 230232 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 0300 UTC FRI MAY 23 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 107.8W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 107.8W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 107.6W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 10.8N 108.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 11.1N 109.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 11.4N 109.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 11.6N 110.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 11.8N 110.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 12.0N 111.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 12.5N 112.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 107.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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