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Tropical Depression KIKO Forecast Discussion Number 10
2013-09-02 10:42:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON SEP 02 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 020842 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 200 AM PDT MON SEP 02 2013 THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KIKO DISSIPATED OVERNIGHT...AND THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO QUICKLY FALL...AND A BLEND OF THE LATEST T- AND CI-NUMBERS SUGGEST AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW AS IT MOVES OVER COOL WATERS AND IN A STABLE ENVIRONMENT. DISSIPATION OF THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST IN A DAY OR TWO...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. NIGHTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT KIKO HAS SLOWED DOWN WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 335/4 KT. THE CYCLONE IS PREDICTED TO CONTINUE SLOWING DOWN TODAY AS IT BECOMES SITUATED IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 22.7N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 23.2N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 03/0600Z 23.5N 116.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 03/1800Z 23.7N 116.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression KIKO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2013-09-02 10:38:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 02 2013 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 020838 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 0900 UTC MON SEP 02 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 6 26 30 NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 79 57 48 NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 15 18 21 NA NA NA NA HURRICANE X X 1 NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X 1 NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 25KT 20KT 20KT NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression KIKO (EP1/EP112013)
2013-09-02 10:38:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KIKO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Sep 2 the center of KIKO was located near 22.7, -116.3 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression KIKO Public Advisory Number 10
2013-09-02 10:38:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON SEP 02 2013 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 020838 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 200 AM PDT MON SEP 02 2013 ...KIKO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 116.3W ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.3 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/H...AND A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST... AND KIKO IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression KIKO Forecast Advisory Number 10
2013-09-02 10:38:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 02 2013 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 020838 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 0900 UTC MON SEP 02 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 116.3W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 116.3W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 116.2W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 23.2N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 23.5N 116.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 23.7N 116.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 116.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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